71 Seattle Slew Dr · West Freehold, NJ 07731

$138,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 1996 2,562 sqft lot Est $138k · at est. $745/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Contract Continue To Show. Move-in ready! Affordable, clean, and updated, this cheerful and well-kept mobile home features a generously sized yard on a sunny corner lot in beautiful Oak Hill. No age restriction! Enjoy peaceful living in a quiet neighborhood with easy access to the Jersey Shore, shopping, major routes. An open-concept layout features 2 spacious bedrooms with ample mirrored-door closets, a full bath with tub/shower combo, washer/dryer, newer HVAC, and substantial living room. A well-equipped kitchen with dining area offers polished speckled-stone countertops and white cabinetry, stainless-steel appliances. The side door opens to a large deck, perfect for relaxing or ent

Key facts

• Sunny corner lot
• Large deck
• 2,562 sq ft lot

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• SUNNY CORNER LOT
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $130k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.6% in West Freehold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in NJ, #4,542 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Howell Township Public School District (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #195 of 472 in NJ (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,719 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.13%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Seattle Slew Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	1mo	$138,000	$190	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,863
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $13,695
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07731

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 331
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$745
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,150

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $406	+0% $358	+5% $311	+10% $263
Rent	-10% $153	-5% $255	+0% $358	+5% $461	+10% $564
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $393	base $358	+0.5pp $323	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 N American Dr Howell Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	753	$2,598	$3.45	2d	7	0.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $745 · $8,940/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-01
   listed $138,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − HOA: −$8,940
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $2,802
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$672
• After-tax cash flow: $3,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howell Township Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3407560
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $93,085
• Composite: 39.35/100
• National rank: #3979
• State rank: #195 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Freehold

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #4542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monmouth County · 505,557 people
• City population: 56,623
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,322
• Household income: $134,056
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -303.76%
• Current HPI: 375.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $138,000 MOMLS