148 San Carlos St · Holiday City South, NJ 08757

$255,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 757 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1986 4,791 sqft lot Est $255k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a coming soon listing and cannot be shown until 4/8/26. Welcome to this well-maintained Newport model in the desirable Holiday City South, a 55+ Community! This single-story ranch offers two bedrooms, one full bathroom, and an open-concept living and dining area. The home is equipped with central A/C, hot water baseboard heat, and gas cooking for efficiency and comfort. A one-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and Formica countertops, offering a functional space for daily meal prep. The spacious primary bedroom offers plenty of room to relax, while the second bedroom--ideal for use as a guest room or office--features sliding doors with direct access to the patio. This outdoor space is perfect for basking in the sun, enjoying your morning coffee, or simply unwinding in a peaceful setting. Residents of Holiday City South enjoy an active clubhouse, a community salt-water pool, and a variety of clubs and activities for entertainment and lifestyle. This prime location puts you in close proximity to local shopping along Route 37 and dining at Holiday City Plaza, as well as a short drive to the beautiful Jersey Shore beaches, Island Beach State Park, and the Garden State Parkway for easy travel.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $247k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.9% in Holiday City South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#302 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 507 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,623/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.46%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,109
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 San Carlos St	0.00mi	2/1.0	757 (0%)	1mo	$255,000	$337	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,854
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $16,812
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,328/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,136

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $529	-5% $456	+0% $384	+5% $312	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $281	+0% $384	+5% $488	+10% $591
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $449	base $384	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	1.01mi
28 Brandies Rd Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	864	$2,800	$3.24	0d	1	1.35mi
29 Adelphi Rd Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	864	$2,700	$3.12	18d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-08
   listed $255,000 Active 1283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1283 chars)

   This is a coming soon listing and cannot be shown until 4/8/26. Welcome to this well-maintained Newport model in the desirable Holiday City South, a 55+ Community! This single-story ranch offers two bedrooms, one full bathroom, and an open-concept living and dining area. The home is equipped with central A/C, hot water baseboard heat, and gas cooking for efficiency and comfort. A one-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and Formica countertops, offering a functional space for daily meal prep. The spacious primary bedroom offers plenty of room to relax, while the second bedroom--ideal for use as a guest room or office--features sliding doors with direct access to the patio. This outdoor space is perfect for basking in the sun, enjoying your morning coffee, or simply unwinding in a peaceful setting. Residents of Holiday City South enjoy an active clubhouse, a community salt-water pool, and a variety of clubs and activities for entertainment and lifestyle. This prime location puts you in close proximity to local shopping along Route 37 and dining at Holiday City Plaza, as well as a short drive to the beautiful Jersey Shore beaches, Island Beach State Park, and the Garden State Parkway for easy travel.

2. 2026-04-02
   historical $255,000 1283-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1283 chars)

   This is a coming soon listing and cannot be shown until 4/8/26. Welcome to this well-maintained Newport model in the desirable Holiday City South, a 55+ Community! This single-story ranch offers two bedrooms, one full bathroom, and an open-concept living and dining area. The home is equipped with central A/C, hot water baseboard heat, and gas cooking for efficiency and comfort. A one-car garage provides convenience and extra storage. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and Formica countertops, offering a functional space for daily meal prep. The spacious primary bedroom offers plenty of room to relax, while the second bedroom--ideal for use as a guest room or office--features sliding doors with direct access to the patio. This outdoor space is perfect for basking in the sun, enjoying your morning coffee, or simply unwinding in a peaceful setting. Residents of Holiday City South enjoy an active clubhouse, a community salt-water pool, and a variety of clubs and activities for entertainment and lifestyle. This prime location puts you in close proximity to local shopping along Route 37 and dining at Holiday City Plaza, as well as a short drive to the beautiful Jersey Shore beaches, Island Beach State Park, and the Garden State Parkway for easy travel.

3. 2023-12-14
   soldstatus $205,000
4. 2023-12-01
   soldstatus $205,000 Closed 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to the charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath gem in the heart of this vibrant adult community. This adorable home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle for those looking to embrace a relaxed and active community setting. This home boosts spacious master bedroom and a 2nd bedroom to use as a guest room or office/den with sliders to access the patio area where you can bask in the sun, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind. Well-Equipped eat in kitchen and a dining area. Access to community amenities and with low-maintenance living ideal for active adults. Close proximity to Shopping, Dining, and Entertainment. This delightful home is designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking to downsize or enjoy the benefits of an adult community. Don't miss this opportunity.

5. 2023-11-03
   status Pending 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to the charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath gem in the heart of this vibrant adult community. This adorable home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle for those looking to embrace a relaxed and active community setting. This home boosts spacious master bedroom and a 2nd bedroom to use as a guest room or office/den with sliders to access the patio area where you can bask in the sun, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind. Well-Equipped eat in kitchen and a dining area. Access to community amenities and with low-maintenance living ideal for active adults. Close proximity to Shopping, Dining, and Entertainment. This delightful home is designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking to downsize or enjoy the benefits of an adult community. Don't miss this opportunity.

6. 2023-10-28
   status Active 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to the charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath gem in the heart of this vibrant adult community. This adorable home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle for those looking to embrace a relaxed and active community setting. This home boosts spacious master bedroom and a 2nd bedroom to use as a guest room or office/den with sliders to access the patio area where you can bask in the sun, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind. Well-Equipped eat in kitchen and a dining area. Access to community amenities and with low-maintenance living ideal for active adults. Close proximity to Shopping, Dining, and Entertainment. This delightful home is designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking to downsize or enjoy the benefits of an adult community. Don't miss this opportunity.

7. 2023-10-06
   status Pending 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to the charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath gem in the heart of this vibrant adult community. This adorable home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle for those looking to embrace a relaxed and active community setting. This home boosts spacious master bedroom and a 2nd bedroom to use as a guest room or office/den with sliders to access the patio area where you can bask in the sun, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind. Well-Equipped eat in kitchen and a dining area. Access to community amenities and with low-maintenance living ideal for active adults. Close proximity to Shopping, Dining, and Entertainment. This delightful home is designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking to downsize or enjoy the benefits of an adult community. Don't miss this opportunity.

8. 2023-10-05
   status Active 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to the charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath gem in the heart of this vibrant adult community. This adorable home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle for those looking to embrace a relaxed and active community setting. This home boosts spacious master bedroom and a 2nd bedroom to use as a guest room or office/den with sliders to access the patio area where you can bask in the sun, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind. Well-Equipped eat in kitchen and a dining area. Access to community amenities and with low-maintenance living ideal for active adults. Close proximity to Shopping, Dining, and Entertainment. This delightful home is designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking to downsize or enjoy the benefits of an adult community. Don't miss this opportunity.

9. 2023-09-29
   listed $205,000 Active 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Welcome to the charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath gem in the heart of this vibrant adult community. This adorable home offers a comfortable and convenient lifestyle for those looking to embrace a relaxed and active community setting. This home boosts spacious master bedroom and a 2nd bedroom to use as a guest room or office/den with sliders to access the patio area where you can bask in the sun, sip your morning coffee, or simply unwind. Well-Equipped eat in kitchen and a dining area. Access to community amenities and with low-maintenance living ideal for active adults. Close proximity to Shopping, Dining, and Entertainment. This delightful home is designed for comfortable living, whether you're looking to downsize or enjoy the benefits of an adult community. Don't miss this opportunity.

10. 2010-11-11
    soldstatus $67,000
11. 2010-09-15
    listed $79,000
12. 1985-12-11
    soldstatus $63,190

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,339 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,011/yr (+$168/mo · 86.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,470
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,328
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,518
• − Management: −$2,518
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $529
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$127
• After-tax cash flow: $4,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City South

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #9268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City South, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+303.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $255,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-02 Coming Soon $255,000 MOMLS
• 2023-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-01 Sold (MLS) $205,000 MOMLS
• 2023-11-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-10-28 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-10-06 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-10-05 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed $205,000 MOMLS
• 2010-11-11 Sold (MLS) $67,000 MOMLS
• 2010-09-15 Listed $79,000 MOMLS
• 1985-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $63,190 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,328 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.