4650 Sierra Madre · Wichita Falls, TX 76310

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1961 8,281 sqft lot Est $165k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Totally remodeled in 2019! Open living area with gorgeous easy to clean wood-plank tile flooring & LED can lighting. Fresh & bright kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, gas cook top, & glass backsplash. Burris Low E Energy Efficient windows w/ Lifetime Warranty. Spacious bedrooms w/ good-sized closets and carpet. Beautifully renovated bathrooms. Large privacy-fenced backyard. Roof replaced in 2019 w/ Class 4 architectural shingles. Freshly landscaped front yard. Jefferson/McNiel/Rider.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Generous patio slab
• 8,281 sq ft lot

Tags

• ENTERTAINING BACKYARD
• GENEROUS PATIO SLAB
• BRAND NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: UNIVERSITY PARK E1; County: Wichita; Country: United States
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2; Driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: City sewer; City water; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1961; One story
• Construction: Shingle roof; No attached property (detached status: no)
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; One level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 382 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,392 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,832
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4665 Sierra Madre	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+2%)	15mo	$189,900	$154	82
4661 Briarwood Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-8%)	6mo	$149,500	$134	62
5140 Kingston Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,248 (+3%)	11mo	$144,900	$116	62
1 Daisy Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-4%)	3mo	$157,900	$136	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-33,361
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,443
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76310

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,612/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $172,687

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-98	+0% $-155	+5% $-211	+10% $-268
Rent	-10% $-291	-5% $-223	+0% $-155	+5% $-87	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-54	-0.5pp $-104	base $-155	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5313 Langford Ln Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,650	$1.51	45d	1	0.79mi
4111 McGaha Ave Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,125	$1.10	45d	1	1.30mi
5114 Fairway Blvd Wichita Falls, TX	4.0	2.0	1406	$1,600	$1.14	45d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 645-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,612 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,612 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,612
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wichita Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,604
• Composite: 27.06/100
• National rank: #7051
• State rank: #585 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wichita Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #8940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wichita Falls, TX
• County: Wichita County · 95,694 people
• City population: 95,694
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,029
• Household income: $82,183
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 263.0

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.37%
• Current HPI: 176.0321
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.83%
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2020-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-30 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2020-05-26 Listed $149,900 WFAOR
• 2019-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-09-10 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2019-07-26 Listed $139,500 WFAOR
• 2006-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,612 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.