4870 NW 16th Ln · Rainbow Park, FL 34482

$329,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,172 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,969 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household’s needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.16 acre (approximately 647 sq meters); Zoned PUD
• HOA & community: HOA administered by Triad Management; HOA dues $555 annually ($46.25 monthly); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North facing; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-06-26)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Built by Lennar Homes (Model: Dawn)
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

🏗️ New construction. The $329,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $496,681.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 5.7% in Rainbow Park — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: College Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,437 of 2,144 statewide, top 68%, 840 students, 78% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); West Port High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,906 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,827 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.60%
• DSCR: 0.39
• GRM: 17.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $496,681
• List price: $329,990
• Delta: -33.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-168,063
• Equity at exit: $74,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-217,401
• Equity at exit: $42,944

Cash invested: $139,071 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$621 /mo · $7,450/yr
• Insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-1,576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,403

Max offer price $268,643

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,233	-5% $-1,404	+0% $-1,576	+5% $-1,748	+10% $-1,919
Rent	-10% $-1,766	-5% $-1,671	+0% $-1,576	+5% $-1,481	+10% $-1,386
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,326	-0.5pp $-1,450	base $-1,576	+0.5pp $-1,705	+1.0pp $-1,836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,170
• Closing costs: $14,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $329,990 Active 529-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,822
• − Property taxes: −$7,450
• − Insurance: −$2,483
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,312
• − Management: −$2,312
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$14,449
• Taxable loss: −$28,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,835
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is under construction and is in excellent condition. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be to the landscaping, interior paint, appliances, lighting, and kitchen backsplash to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern.
• Both Appliances — Upgrading to new, energy-efficient appliances can improve the home's value and appeal to buyers or renters.
• Both Lighting — Adding modern lighting fixtures can enhance the home's ambiance and increase its appeal.
• Both Kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can refresh the kitchen and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern. ↑
• Both Appliances — Upgrading to new, energy-efficient appliances can improve the home's value and appeal to buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Lighting — Adding modern lighting fixtures can enhance the home's ambiance and increase its appeal. ↑
• Both Kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can refresh the kitchen and make it more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid