171 Nix Ln · Centralia, WA 98531

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Other · 35 Days on market

Built 1997 Good condition $104/sqft · 48% above area Est $125k · 48% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently renovated home featuring a light & bright kitchen with black granite countertops, complemented by stainless appliances, including double ovens, new fridge, and a hide-away fan for the cooktop. Kitchen provides ample storage with floor to ceiling cabinets. Home features an open floor plan, where the kitchen flows into the dining space and family room, leaving a more formal living space in the front. The primary bedroom has a spa-inspired bathroom with a jetted tub, oversized decorative tile shower w/ built-in bench & storage niches, and dark cabinetry. The additional bedrooms share a full bath. Home also has a new roof, storage shed out back, and a fully fenced yard.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Light bright kitchen
• Double ovens

Tags

• LIGHT BRIGHT KITCHEN
• BLACK GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE OVENS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• FLOOR TO CEILING CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 2.5%; Calculated living area approximately 1782 square feet
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Land lease: $656; Park approved for sale; Pets: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (City of Centralia); Public sewer (City of Centralia); Power provided by Centralia City Lights; Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Guerdon Summerhill); One level; Entry/placement ties down to foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Tie down foundation; Manufactured house construction; Built after 06/15/1976
• Exterior features: Has view; Park amenities include high-speed internet availability and a playground; Number of homes in park: 98

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Double oven; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Jetted/soaking tub; Walk-in closet; Bath off primary; Kitchen with eating space; Living room; Utility room; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.0% in Centralia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#81 in WA, #1,497 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, employment F.
• Centralia School District (town): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 291 in WA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Centralia High School (986 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.35%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,000
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 48.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,155
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $40,930
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98531

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,016/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,433

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,016 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$797/yr (+$66/mo · 78.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,016
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $3,006
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$721
• After-tax cash flow: $5,155/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This recently renovated home features a light and bright kitchen with new appliances and ample storage, an open floor plan, and a spa-inspired bathroom. The exterior is well-maintained with a new roof and storage shed, and the property is fully fenced with a landscaped yard. The home is in good condition and ready for move-in.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace flooring — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia School District
• NCES district ID: 5301140
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,851
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #187 of 291 in WA

Livability — Centralia

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1497

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lewis County · 27,337 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,337
• Household income: $63,406
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1000.0

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.98%
• Current HPI: 378.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Centralia, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $185,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,016 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.