707 Lincoln Ave · Lumberton, MS 39455

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · Other public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

FORECLOSURE!! AS-IS, NO DISCLOSURE!!! Great investment opportunity in Lumberton School District. Easy access to Lumberton or Purvis!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1980
• Listed 49 days

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• LUMBERTON SCHOOL DISTRICT
• EASY ACCESS TO LUMBERTON
• EASY ACCESS TO PURVIS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($849 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 4.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar County School District (rural): math 48% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #18 of 130 in MS (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Lamar County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.84%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $36,977
• Equity at exit: $28,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.12×
• Total profit: $90,721
• Equity at exit: $54,225

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39455

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $403

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $364	+0% $352	+5% $341	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $285	-5% $319	+0% $352	+5% $386	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $362	base $352	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 E Main Ave Lumberton, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$949	$1.31	22d	1	0.79mi
203 9th Ave Lumberton, MS	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	22d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   status Active
3. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-06
   listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $3,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$924
• After-tax cash flow: $3,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802400
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,742
• Composite: 40.77/100
• National rank: #3645
• State rank: #18 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #8568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lumberton, MS
• City population: 9,030
• Population (ZIP): 9,030

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,826 people
• By 2030: 77,309 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 87,733 · +22.1%
• By 2050: 97,289 · +35.5%
• By 2075: 115,347 · +60.6%
• By 2100: 125,601 · +74.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 15% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.8) · D 25.0% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.0pp toward D · 2008: -55.8pp · 2024: -48.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.8 2020: R+46.9 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+55.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.23%
• Current HPI: 202.5728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — HAAR
• 2026-02-11 Pending — HAAR
• 2026-01-06 Listed $39,900 HAAR

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,115 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.