507 Fox Grove Rd SW · Supply, NC 28462

$233,490

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 168 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 3,049 sqft lot $148/sqft · 16% below area Est $277k · 16% under $89/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come tour 507 Fox Grove Road SW! One of our new homes at Fox Run, located in Supply, NC. The Newport floorplan offers a spacious and functional layout with three bedrooms, three full baths, and a versatile flex room across two levels. The open-concept first floor features a bright kitchen overlooking the dining and living areas, complete with a large island perfect for entertaining and everyday living. The private first-floor owner's suite creates a comfortable retreat, while upstairs provides additional bedrooms, bathrooms, laundry, and flexible living space ideal for guests, hobbies, or a home office. All of our homes include D. R. Horton's Home is Connected® package, an industry leading suite of smart home products that keeps homeowners connected with the people and place they value most. The technology allows homeowners to monitor and control their home from the couch or across the globe. * The photos you see here are for illustration purposes only, interior and exterior features, options, colors and selections will differ.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Vinyl flooring
• Open flow

Tags

• OPEN FLOW
• CENTER ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VINYL FLOORING
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $233k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Supply Elementary (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #625 of 1,410 statewide, top 45%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 738 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,137 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,820
• List price: $233,490
• Delta: -15.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
637 Bushy Trail Loop SW	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+2%)	2mo	$283,000	$175	83
661 Bushy Trail Loop SW	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+6%)	2mo	$302,000	$181	74
4322 Skulk Ln SW	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-15%)	0mo	$270,640	$202	65
1449 Holden Beach Rd SW	0.83mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-1%)	5mo	$300,000	$191	54
2161 Chair Shop Pl SW	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,874 (+18%)	20mo	$200,000	$107	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-46,496
• Equity at exit: $34,814

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-51,406
• Equity at exit: $20,188

Cash invested: $65,377 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 34.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,880 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 122 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 738
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,224
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$292 /mo · $3,502/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$89
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,155

Max offer price $213,620

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-57	+0% $-137	+5% $-218	+10% $-299
Rent	-10% $-294	-5% $-216	+0% $-137	+5% $-59	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-78	base $-137	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,372
• Closing costs: $7,005
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1594 Holden Beach Rd SW Supply, NC	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	40d	1	0.91mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with managementAnnual association fee of $1,068 (approximately $89/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lightsSubdivision: Fox Run

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableUnderground utilitiesWater available
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsEntry level: 1New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationHome warranty includedBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchFront porchRear porchPaved roadPrivate road frontageHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)Entrance foyerKitchen islandWindow coveringsUnfurnishedENERGY STAR qualified appliancesAccessible full bathSmoke detector(s)Lighting and thermostat energy-efficient features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupLaundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $233,490 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $233,490 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $233,490 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $233,490 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $233,490 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $233,490 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $233,490 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $233,490 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $233,490 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $233,490 Active 158 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $233,490 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $233,490 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $233,490 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $233,490 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $233,490 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $233,490 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $233,490 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $233,490 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $233,490 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $233,490 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $233,490 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $233,490 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $233,490 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $233,490 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $233,490 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $233,490 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $233,490 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $233,490 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $233,490 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $233,490 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $233,490 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $233,490 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $233,490 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $233,490 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $233,490 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $233,490 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $233,490 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $233,490 Active 130 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $233,490 Active 129 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $233,490 Active 128 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $233,490 Active 127 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $233,490 Active 126 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $233,490 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $233,490 Active 123 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $233,490 Active 122 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $233,490 Active 121 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $233,490 Active 120 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $233,490 Active 119 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $233,490 Active 118 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $233,490 Active 117 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,079
• − Property taxes: −$3,502
• − Insurance: −$1,167
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$6,792
• Taxable loss: −$5,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,910–$23,730 screening

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor updates to the kitchen and bathrooms that could significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase appeal ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can increase appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Supply Elementary F NC #625/1,410 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Supply

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 12,340
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: residential
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with managementAnnual association fee of $1,068 (approximately $89/month)Community poolSidewalksStreet lightsSubdivision: Fox Run

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterSewer availableUnderground utilitiesWater available
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo levelsEntry level: 1New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationHome warranty includedBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchFront porchRear porchPaved roadPrivate road frontageHas a view

Interior

• Kitchen: RefrigeratorRangeDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioningHeat pump cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)Entrance foyerKitchen islandWindow coveringsUnfurnishedENERGY STAR qualified appliancesAccessible full bathSmoke detector(s)Lighting and thermostat energy-efficient features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupLaundry room

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $228,490 Hive MLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $228,490 Zillow