3405 Orange St · Houston, TX 77020

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1928 4,499 sqft lot $121/sqft · 39% below area Est $196k · 39% under ↓ 60% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is an excellent opportunity for personal use or investment. This is your chance to have a property within minutes of downtown. Quick access to 59 and I-10. Lots of new development and a prime opportunity to purchase in EaDo before the pricing takes off.

Key facts

• Quick access
• New development
• Prime opportunity

Tags

• MINUTES OF DOWNTOWN
• QUICK ACCESS
• NEW DEVELOPMENT
• PRIME OPPORTUNITY
• PURCHASE IN EADO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.06%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,024
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -38.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1618 Capron St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (+0%)	12mo	$120,000	$121	75
2112 Des Chaumes St	0.51mi	2/2.5	955 (-3%)	1mo	$239,900	$251	63
2116 Des Chaumes St	0.51mi	2/2.5	955 (-3%)	5mo	$240,000	$251	61
2114 Des Chaumes St	0.51mi	2/2.5	1,000 (+1%)	10mo	$235,000	$235	60
2315 Bringhurst St	0.62mi	2/1.0	930 (-6%)	12mo	$59,000	$63	51
4617 Vernon St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-5%)	1mo	$160,000	$171	51
4314 Rawley St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (+6%)	9mo	$195,900	$187	51
4415 Lyons Ave	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+4%)	13mo	$215,000	$208	49
2306 Staples St	0.60mi	2/1.0	912 (-8%)	13mo	$135,000	$148	48
1915 Pannell St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+11%)	14mo	$239,900	$218	42
2235 Hutton St	0.60mi	2/2.0	840 (-15%)	9mo	$72,000	$86	35
2303 Leffingwell St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+9%)	12mo	$215,000	$200	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $89,061
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $250,056
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,226/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,200

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $372	+0% $338	+5% $304	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $273	+0% $338	+5% $402	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $368	base $338	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.21mi
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	25d	1	0.46mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	44d	1	0.59mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	0.72mi
4249 Clinton Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,950	$2.82	4d	1	0.74mi
2810 Riverby Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,950	$2.82	4d	1	0.87mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,320	$1.32	6d	1	0.94mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$2,713	$2.80	0d	69	0.96mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,094	$3.55	21d	16	0.96mi
2202 Solo St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	620	$1,200	$1.94	44d	1	0.96mi
4903 Noble St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	525	$1,200	$2.29	44d	1	0.96mi
3019 Florida St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	44d	1	0.99mi
1556 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	905	$1,505	$1.66	44d	1	0.99mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	2d	19	1.04mi
1519 McKee St Unit 5 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	16d	1	1.05mi
5408 Market St Unit 5408-1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$900	$1.23	6d	1	1.08mi
913 McKee St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	714	$1,003	$1.40	44d	1	1.10mi
650 McKee St Unit 687 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,715	$1.78	44d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,715	$1.78	0d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$991	$1.52	0d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Apt 324 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,002	$1.54	8d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	6d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	8d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 671 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,041	$1.60	11d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Apt 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,674	$1.73	0d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,002	$1.54	6d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,714	$1.77	11d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 701 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,032	$1.59	44d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Unit 671 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,037	$1.60	15d	1	1.12mi
650 McKee St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$991	$1.52	13d	1	1.12mi
2115 Runnels St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,775	$1.69	44d	1	1.15mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2130 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$1,513	$2.15	11d	1	1.15mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2130 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$1,509	$2.14	15d	1	1.15mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 1187 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$1,463	$2.08	0d	1	1.16mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$1,474	$2.09	6d	1	1.16mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,863	$1.94	11d	1	1.16mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 1174 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$1,463	$2.08	13d	1	1.16mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2187 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,823	$1.90	0d	1	1.16mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 321 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$1,474	$2.09	8d	1	1.16mi
2115 Runnels St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	959	$1,864	$1.94	0d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-04-02
    price $120,000 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Home is an excellent opportunity for personal use or investment. This is your chance to have a property within minutes of downtown. Quick access to 59 and I-10. Lots of new development and a prime opportunity to purchase in EaDo before the pricing takes off.

14. 2026-03-12
    price $155,000 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Home is an excellent opportunity for personal use or investment. This is your chance to have a property within minutes of downtown. Quick access to 59 and I-10. Lots of new development and a prime opportunity to purchase in EaDo before the pricing takes off.

15. 2026-02-20
    listed $180,000 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Home is an excellent opportunity for personal use or investment. This is your chance to have a property within minutes of downtown. Quick access to 59 and I-10. Lots of new development and a prime opportunity to purchase in EaDo before the pricing takes off.

16. 2026-02-20
    historical

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Home is an excellent opportunity for personal use or investment. This is your chance to have a property within minutes of downtown. Quick access to 59 and I-10. Lots of new development and a prime opportunity to purchase in EaDo before the pricing takes off.

17. 2025-12-03
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2025-12-03
    historical
19. 2025-09-22
    listed $160,000 Active
20. 2023-06-23
    status Active
21. 2023-06-23
    historical
22. 2023-04-28
    status Pending
23. 2023-04-06
    price $170,000
24. 2023-03-10
    status Active
25. 2023-02-24
    status Pending
26. 2023-02-23
    status Pending, Continue to Show
27. 2023-01-13
    price $200,000
28. 2022-11-29
    price $240,000
29. 2022-09-18
    price $275,000
30. 2022-09-04
    listed $300,000 Active
31. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus
32. 2015-12-17
    soldstatus
33. 2001-12-27
    soldstatus
34. 1995-04-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,226 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,226 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,226
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$568
• After-tax cash flow: $3,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-60.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-04-06 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-13 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-29 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-18 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-04 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2019-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-04-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,226 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.