5202 47th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$135,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1966 8,120 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect location only few minutes from Texas Tech, hospitals, mall, movie theater and restaurants. With easy access to Marsha Sharp freeway and 289 Loop. This 3 bedroom/2bath home is move in ready and great for students or first time home owner. Priced well. On a large lot for entertainment. Additional parking.

Key facts

• Large lot
• Additional parking
• 8,120 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• ADDITIONAL PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $136k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($375/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stewart El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 405 students, 87% FRL); Irons Middle (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 815 students, 71% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $938 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,626 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-22,947
• Equity at exit: $20,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-28,903
• Equity at exit: $11,737

Cash invested: $38,010 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$712
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,123/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $135,750

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $70	+0% $31	+5% $-7	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-18	+0% $31	+5% $80	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $66	base $31	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,938
• Closing costs: $4,072
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	15d	5	0.11mi
5302 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	0.11mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,150	$1.10	15d	2	0.18mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	23d	1	0.20mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.27mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	0.32mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	15d	1	0.32mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	23d	1	0.40mi
5401 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,099	$1.08	15d	11	0.41mi
5011 52nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,500	$1.16	23d	1	0.42mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	45d	1	0.44mi
5430 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	730	$975	$1.34	15d	8	0.44mi
5202 Bangor Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1080	$987	$0.91	15d	11	0.45mi
5128 Aberdeen Ave Unit 206 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$915	$0.83	23d	1	0.45mi
5128 Aberdeen Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	925	$915	$0.99	23d	9	0.45mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	23d	1	0.48mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.49mi
5001 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,019	$1.43	15d	15	0.51mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	23d	1	0.54mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.55mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.55mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.56mi
5433 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	978	$800	$0.82	45d	1	0.57mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	15d	1	0.58mi
5501 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,549	$1.38	15d	7	0.60mi
5105 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	23d	1	0.65mi
4644 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$775	$0.93	15d	1	0.66mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	0.67mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	15d	1	0.68mi
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.69mi
4638 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$749	$0.90	45d	1	0.69mi
5702 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,069	$1.32	15d	27	0.69mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.70mi
4630 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$699	$0.84	45d	1	0.72mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	15d	9	0.73mi
5106 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	23d	1	0.74mi
4626 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$775	$0.93	15d	1	0.74mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	15d	1	0.74mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	23d	1	0.75mi
5714 Brownfield Dr Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	748	$699	$0.93	45d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-05
   historical $1,450
3. 2026-04-04
   listed $135,750 Active
4. 2026-01-07
   listed $1,450
5. 2026-01-07
   historical $1,450
6. 2026-01-07
   listed $1,450
7. 2024-11-21
   historical $1,350
8. 2024-10-11
   listed $1,350
9. 2024-08-30
   historical $1,395
10. 2024-08-21
    price $1,395
11. 2024-07-11
    listed $1,450
12. 2024-06-30
    historical $1,395
13. 2024-06-27
    listed $1,395
14. 2006-07-26
    soldstatus
15. 2002-03-20
    soldstatus
16. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,123 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,484 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$361/yr (+$30/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,604
• − Property taxes: −$2,123
• − Insurance: −$679
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$3,949
• Taxable loss: −$1,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Rental Removed $1,450 LARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $135,750 LARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed for Rent $1,450 LARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Rental Removed $1,450 LARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed for Rent $1,450 LARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Rental Removed $1,350 LARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Listed for Rent $1,350 LARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Rental Removed $1,395 LARMLS
• 2024-08-21 Price Changed $1,395 LARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listed for Rent $1,450 LARMLS
• 2024-06-30 Rental Removed $1,395 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-27 Listed for Rent $1,395 APPFOLIO
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-03-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,123 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.