3516 Straw Ln · Heartland, TX 75114

$281,494

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,671 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $168/sqft · 12% below area Est $319k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Heartland - one of Kaufman County's most sought-after communities, and the perfect place to plant roots. This stunning Coventry Homes two-story home offers 3-bedrooms, 2.5-bathrooms, and 1,671 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space, and it's available now! The open-concept main floor is made for real life - a bright, airy living area flows right into the dining space and kitchen, making everything from weeknight dinners to weekend gatherings feel effortless. Upstairs, escape to your tucked-away primary suite complete with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms give you the flexibility to grow, host, or work from home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-178 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL); Crandall Middle (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 983 students, 60% FRL); Crandall H S (math 33% / reading 53%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,707 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 956 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $223,750 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,129
• List price: $281,494
• Delta: -13.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4209 Beale St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+3%)	2mo	$319,995	$186	80
3537 Hank Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,845 (+10%)	0mo	$289,990	$157	78
3960 Avendale Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+4%)	2mo	$345,000	$199	78
4017 Lakefield Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,696 (+2%)	2mo	$299,500	$177	77
4109 Harrison St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,724 (+3%)	3mo	$299,995	$174	75
3517 Hank Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-12%)	2mo	$278,535	$188	73
3909 Belleview Pl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,753 (+5%)	2mo	$145,555	$83	63
3141 Blossom Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,569 (-6%)	3mo	$229,000	$146	62
3953 Avendale	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (+14%)	2mo	$319,990	$169	58
3721 Blooming Prairie Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+13%)	1mo	$299,622	$159	54
3912 Melica Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,888 (+13%)	2mo	$309,149	$164	54
3818 Noblewood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,857 (+11%)	2mo	$335,000	$180	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,899
• Equity at exit: $41,972

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-63,985
• Equity at exit: $24,338

Cash invested: $78,818 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 116 active · 43 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $300,000 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 956
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,476
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,222/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,462

Max offer price $255,778

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-80	+0% $-178	+5% $-275	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-266	+0% $-178	+5% $-89	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-36	-0.5pp $-106	base $-178	+0.5pp $-251	+1.0pp $-325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,374
• Closing costs: $8,445
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3120 Providence Pl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,200	$1.26	23d	1	0.49mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	93d	1	0.50mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	93d	1	0.56mi
3221 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,450	$1.47	28d	1	0.65mi
3226 Sioux Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2232	$3,100	$1.39	17d	1	0.67mi
3936 Bellingham Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,100	$1.08	32d	1	0.73mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	53d	1	0.74mi
2915 Acacia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1982	$2,400	$1.21	8d	1	0.75mi
2919 Cascade Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,200	$1.49	93d	1	0.80mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,350	$1.43	41d	1	0.82mi
3903 Pioneer Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,350	$1.34	35d	1	0.83mi
1955 Quartz Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,000	$1.16	4d	1	0.91mi
3941 Hometown Blvd Unit 3941 Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,400	$1.38	93d	1	0.91mi
3140 Blacksmith Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1790	$2,300	$1.28	31d	1	0.92mi
3909 Chesapeake Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,300	$1.31	12d	1	0.94mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	0.99mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	0.99mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	1.01mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	93d	1	1.01mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	1.02mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	1.05mi
1968 Marble Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,350	$1.15	64d	1	1.05mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	73d	1	1.07mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	1.08mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	73d	1	1.10mi
4121 Gaillardia Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2135	$2,250	$1.05	68d	1	1.13mi
3101 Buckthorn St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,150	$1.50	38d	1	1.21mi
1275 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,750	$1.36	38d	1	1.22mi
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1533	$2,331	$1.52	0d	6	1.23mi
4001 Fairmont Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1545	$2,000	$1.29	93d	1	1.23mi
1264 Eclipse Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	23d	1	1.26mi
1799 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,800	$1.43	93d	1	1.32mi
2111 Danibelle Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2144	$2,245	$1.05	15d	1	1.33mi
3011 Winecup Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,000	$1.33	1d	1	1.34mi
1793 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,709	$1.03	37d	1	1.34mi
2710 Trail Ride Way Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	9d	1	1.34mi
2911 S Griffin Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,450	$1.91	12d	1	1.36mi
1789 Courage Crk Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,739	$1.04	52d	1	1.36mi
4002 Bighorn Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,120	$1.55	51d	1	1.36mi
2306 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,695	$1.34	93d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $281,494 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   price $274,990 4-char remark
3. 2026-05-02
   listed $281,290 Active 4-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,768
• − Property taxes: −$4,222
• − Insurance: −$1,407
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$8,189
• Taxable loss: −$7,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,688
• After-tax cash flow: $-445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,355–$25,065 screening

This Coventry Homes two-story home in Heartland, TX is in good condition with a good rehab level. It offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 1,671 sqft of living space. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Barbara Walker El F TX #1,946/4,322 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Crandall Middle F TX #646/1,662 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Crandall H S F TX #713/1,632 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Heartland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heartland, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 138,716 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B