4012 Nebraska Trl · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$88,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1992 0.26 ac lot $63/sqft · 58% below area $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a great investment opportunity in Lake Granbury Harbor with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on a spacious quarter-acre lot. With 1,404 sq ft, a split-bedroom layout, and a large living area, this property offers a solid foundation for renovation, resale, or rental. The kitchen features a center island and built-in storage, creating a functional footprint ready for updates. Outside, the property includes a deck, a partially fenced yard, and room to expand or reimagine the outdoor space. Residents of Lake Granbury Harbor HOA enjoy access to a community pool, clubhouse, playground, boat dock, basketball court, and neighborhood parks—perfect for enjoying lake life close to home. The location adds easy convenience, just minutes from Lake Granbury, the Brazos River, downtown amenities, shopping, dining, Harbor Lakes Golf Club, and local schools. Whether you’re looking for a weekend project, a future rental, or a property to renovate and customize, this home offers affordable space, community perks, and plenty of potential!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Quarter-acre lot

Tags

• QUARTER-ACRE LOT
• CENTER ISLAND
• BUILT-IN STORAGE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $828 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.6% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.31%
• DSCR: 2.79
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,131
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: -57.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3714 Utah Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-3%)	1mo	$129,000	$94	77
6108 New Mexico Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	19mo	$139,500	$96	62
6032 Texas Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+5%)	6mo	$167,900	$114	62
6111 New Mexico Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	6mo	$125,000	$103	57
4016 Tennessee Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	19mo	$147,900	$122	56
5821 Arrowhead Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	10mo	$170,000	$117	51
5904 Flint Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (+5%)	9mo	$205,000	$139	46
5714 Arkansas Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	11mo	$125,000	$80	38
3302 Hilltop Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	19mo	$115,000	$73	34
5823 Arrowhead Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,278 (-9%)	22mo	$139,500	$109	33
5831 Arrowhead Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	22mo	$139,500	$115	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $35,114
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $85,265
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $877/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $828

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $877	-5% $853	+0% $828	+5% $803	+10% $778
Rent	-10% $687	-5% $757	+0% $828	+5% $898	+10% $969
Rate	-1.0pp $872	-0.5pp $850	base $828	+0.5pp $805	+1.0pp $782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4214 W Virginia Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,595	$1.50	44d	1	0.26mi
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	44d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $88,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $88,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $88,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $88,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $88,000 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Discover a great investment opportunity in Lake Granbury Harbor with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on a spacious quarter-acre lot. With 1,404 sq ft, a split-bedroom layout, and a large living area, this property offers a solid foundation for renovation, resale, or rental. The kitchen features a center island and built-in storage, creating a functional footprint ready for updates. Outside, the property includes a deck, a partially fenced yard, and room to expand or reimagine the outdoor space. Residents of Lake Granbury Harbor HOA enjoy access to a community pool, clubhouse, playground, boat dock, basketball court, and neighborhood parks—perfect for enjoying lake life close to home. The location adds easy convenience, just minutes from Lake Granbury, the Brazos River, downtown amenities, shopping, dining, Harbor Lakes Golf Club, and local schools. Whether you’re looking for a weekend project, a future rental, or a property to renovate and customize, this home offers affordable space, community perks, and plenty of potential!

16. 2026-02-06
    listed $95,000 Active 1057-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1057 chars)

    Discover a great investment opportunity in Lake Granbury Harbor with this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sitting on a spacious quarter-acre lot. With 1,404 sq ft, a split-bedroom layout, and a large living area, this property offers a solid foundation for renovation, resale, or rental. The kitchen features a center island and built-in storage, creating a functional footprint ready for updates. Outside, the property includes a deck, a partially fenced yard, and room to expand or reimagine the outdoor space. Residents of Lake Granbury Harbor HOA enjoy access to a community pool, clubhouse, playground, boat dock, basketball court, and neighborhood parks—perfect for enjoying lake life close to home. The location adds easy convenience, just minutes from Lake Granbury, the Brazos River, downtown amenities, shopping, dining, Harbor Lakes Golf Club, and local schools. Whether you’re looking for a weekend project, a future rental, or a property to renovate and customize, this home offers affordable space, community perks, and plenty of potential!

17. 2025-10-28
    historical
18. 2025-07-28
    listed $94,900 Active
19. 2025-07-24
    historical
20. 2025-06-25
    price $97,800
21. 2025-06-05
    price $97,900
22. 2025-05-27
    price $99,250
23. 2025-05-15
    price $99,400
24. 2025-04-30
    price $99,500
25. 2025-04-12
    listed $109,900 Active
26. 2025-04-11
    historical
27. 2025-02-10
    price $99,400
28. 2025-01-24
    listed $99,900 Active
29. 2024-12-12
    historical
30. 2024-10-17
    listed $84,500 Active
31. 2024-06-01
    historical
32. 2024-05-15
    historical Active Option Contract
33. 2024-04-10
    price $84,900
34. 2024-03-28
    price $89,900
35. 2024-03-06
    price $94,900
36. 2024-02-17
    price $99,900
37. 2024-02-01
    listed $109,900 Active
38. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus
39. 2014-07-29
    soldstatus
40. 2009-07-07
    soldstatus
41. 1997-03-07
    soldstatus
42. 1993-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$733/yr (+$61/mo · 83.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$877
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $9,052
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,172
• After-tax cash flow: $7,759/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.9% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $88,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $97,800 NTREIS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $97,900 NTREIS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $99,250 NTREIS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $99,400 NTREIS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $99,500 NTREIS
• 2025-04-12 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-11 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $99,400 NTREIS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $84,500 NTREIS
• 2024-06-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-05-15 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $94,900 NTREIS
• 2024-02-17 Price Changed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2021-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $877 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.