4413 40th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1954 8,859 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ideally located in the heart of mid-city with quick and convenient access to the hospital district and Texas Tech University. Whether you're looking to expand your rental portfolio or searching for a project with upside potential, this property offers a great opportunity. Some updates have already been started, making it the perfect option for an investor or buyer ready to finish the work and bring their vision to life. With the right touch, this home could truly shine. Charming in character and full of potential, this property is ready for someone to add the love and finishing touches it deserves. This home can also be packaged together with 2115 49th Street for a stronger investment opportunity and potential pricing advantage. Don't miss your chance to turn this into a fantastic investment or a place to call home!

Key facts

• 8,859 sq ft lot
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Covered parking
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 1,152 above grade
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Other exterior features

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Carbon monoxide detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($121/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,805 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-25,824
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-33,264
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,238 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,766/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $51	+0% $10	+5% $-31	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-39	+0% $10	+5% $59	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $47	base $10	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	22d	1	0.01mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	15d	1	0.17mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.34mi
3506 Peoria Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	15d	1	0.36mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	15d	1	0.36mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	0.37mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	22d	1	0.40mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	45d	1	0.40mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	15d	1	0.43mi
4006 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$695	$0.87	45d	1	0.49mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	22d	1	0.50mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	15d	9	0.52mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	45d	1	0.54mi
3410 Nashville Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$675	$0.96	45d	1	0.54mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	22d	1	0.55mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	15d	1	0.55mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	22d	1	0.57mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	15d	1	0.57mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	22d	1	0.57mi
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.59mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	45d	1	0.60mi
4407 31st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.61mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	15d	7	0.62mi
4423 31st St Unit 1 FS Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$885	$0.86	22d	1	0.62mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.62mi
4425 31st St Unit Fs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$899	$0.90	22d	1	0.62mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.63mi
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.65mi
4320 52nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.68mi
3813 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1018	$1,295	$1.27	22d	1	0.68mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	15d	1	0.68mi
4604 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$749	$0.90	45d	1	0.71mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	15d	1	0.73mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	0.73mi
4626 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$775	$0.93	15d	1	0.75mi
4630 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$699	$0.84	45d	1	0.76mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.77mi
4313 53rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1368	$1,200	$0.88	45d	1	0.78mi
4638 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	836	$749	$0.90	45d	1	0.78mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	22d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 463-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,766 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$887/yr (+$74/mo · 50.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,766
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$564
• After-tax cash flow: $685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+263.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $145,000 LARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Rental Removed $1,350 LARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $1,350 LARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed for Rent $1,400 LARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-06 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $85,000 LARMLS
• 2014-05-31 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2014-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-04-28 Listed $39,950 LARMLS
• 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,766 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.