10643 Dogwood Sky Dr · Kendleton, TX 77417

$289,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Jasmine floor plan offers 2,236 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with a comfortable blend of open-concept areas and private retreats. The first floor features a welcoming foyer that leads into a spacious kitchen with a large island, pantry, and direct access to the dining and family rooms, creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while a conveniently located powder room sits near the front of the home. The first-floor primary bedroom provides a private getaway with a well-appointed bath and a generous walk-in closet. The second floor includes three additional bedrooms and a full bath, along with a large game room that offers flexible space for recreation, relaxation, or gatherings. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT AREAS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• POWDER ROOM
• PRIMARY BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association pool; Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: Emberly Homeowner Association; Community amenities include clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pickleball, and pool; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Backyard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Solid surface counters; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $323,488.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($226/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,488
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -10.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10418 Birds Nest Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,279 (+2%)	2mo	$303,990	$133	71
722 Mockingbird Psge	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,200 (-2%)	2mo	$357,590	$163	70
731 Blue Stone Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,386 (+7%)	2mo	$376,990	$158	69
1050 Blue Stone Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,083 (-7%)	3mo	$348,990	$168	66
1102 Arbor Dr	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,457 (+10%)	3mo	$334,990	$136	64
10422 Rocky Trl	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-8%)	3mo	$297,990	$144	64
10722 Sky Creek Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,141 (-4%)	1mo	$319,000	$149	63
1035 Blue Stone Dr	0.42mi	4/3.5	2,400 (+8%)	3mo	$368,990	$154	62
10407 Rocky Trl	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,066 (-8%)	3mo	$294,990	$143	62
1106 Arbor Dr	0.28mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,542 (+14%)	2mo	$329,990	$130	55
730 Mockingbird Passage Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,563 (+15%)	2mo	$376,365	$147	51
1138 Blue Stone Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,951 (-13%)	3mo	$289,990	$149	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $60,442
• Equity at exit: $166,919

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $189,968
• Equity at exit: $275,354

Cash invested: $90,577 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,696
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,852/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,941

Max offer price $323,488

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $131	+0% $19	+5% $-93	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-98	+0% $19	+5% $136	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $101	base $19	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,872
• Closing costs: $9,705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	0d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,990 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $289,990 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $289,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $314,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $347,990 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1085 chars)

    The Jasmine floor plan offers 2,236 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space with a comfortable blend of open-concept areas and private retreats. The first floor features a welcoming foyer that leads into a spacious kitchen with a large island, pantry, and direct access to the dining and family rooms, creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. A covered patio extends the living space outdoors, while a conveniently located powder room sits near the front of the home. The first-floor primary bedroom provides a private getaway with a well-appointed bath and a generous walk-in closet. The second floor includes three additional bedrooms and a full bath, along with a large game room that offers flexible space for recreation, relaxation, or gatherings. Located in Emberly, a master-planned community featuring The Haven Amenity Village, that includes a clubhouse with fitness center, outdoor courtyard, resort-style pool, water park with splash pad, event lawn, playground, pickleball court, sand volleyball court, dog park, hike/bike trails, and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,120
• − Property taxes: −$4,852
• − Insurance: −$1,617
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$9,411
• Taxable loss: −$5,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,241
• After-tax cash flow: $1,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to improve the exterior, interior, HVAC, and landscaping to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Blurred image, no visible details
• Major interior walls/paint — Blurred image, no visible details
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Blurred image, no visible details

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Blurred image, no visible details	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Blurred image, no visible details	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Blurred image, no visible details	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior painting — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained yard can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $314,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Listed $347,990 Zillow