175 Uhl Ln · Orient, NY 11957

$1,225,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 112 Days on market

Built 2001 0.92 ac lot Est $1220k · at est. $21/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Stunning North Fork Colonial in Orient Welcome to your dream home on the beautiful North Fork. Situated on a flat spacious acre with mature specimen trees provide privacy in the desirable community of Orient by the Sea. This post modern residence offers the perfect blend of luxury and comfort with 4 generous bedrooms, including a remarkable 3-room primary suite on the main floor featuring a private sitting room, this home is designed for relaxation and privacy. The great room boasts soaring ceilings and a striking stone fireplace with gleaming hardwood floors and walls of glass fill the living area with natural sunlight and warmth throughout the year. Entertain guests with ease on the wrap

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2001

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in Suffolk County
• HOA & community: Part of 'Orient by The Sea' association; Annual association fee of $250; Private park and beach association fee (additional $250 annually); Community amenities include park and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with automatic door opener; Total parking for 7 vehicles; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Trash collection (private); Underground utilities; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated / Remodeled; Measured living area
• Construction: Wood siding; Built with advanced framing techniques; Energy Star construction features; Partial attic (storage, unfinished); Full unfinished basement for storage
• Exterior features: Covered wrap-around porch and deck; Back yard; Front yard; Garden; Landscaped grounds; Private yard; Corner lot; Perimeter fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Chef's kitchen; Granite and quartz/quartzite counters; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level; Total rooms: 8
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (oil); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Central vacuum; Chandelier; Chef's kitchen; Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; Formal dining room; Granite counters; High ceilings; High-speed internet; His and hers closets; In-law floorplan; Natural woodwork; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom; Master suite on main level; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Recessed lighting; Smart thermostat; Soaking tub; Built-in speakers / wired for sound; Stone counters; Storage; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup; Accessible common area; Accessible full bath
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.23M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32k ($384k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($50k rent vs $1.23M).
• Recommended offer: $1.11M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,080 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oysterponds Union Free School District (rural): math 30% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #506 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oysterponds Elementary School (math 54% / reading 64%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 80 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oysterponds Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $131k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $122k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $343k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$211k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.11M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $1.23M implies a 1601% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,114,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.02%
• DSCR: 5.98
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,220,100
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
175 Uhl Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,100 (0%)	1mo	$770,000	$367	99
1300 Parkview Ln	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,400 (+14%)	16mo	$1,395,000	$581	59
555 Three Waters Ln	0.27mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,400 (+14%)	8mo	$1,010,000	$421	50
1405 Terry Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+5%)	16mo	$2,825,000	$1,284	47
1250 N Sea Dr	0.17mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,800 (-14%)	20mo	$1,075,000	$597	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.89×
• Total profit: $2,706,552
• Equity at exit: $1,103,577

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.56×
• Total profit: $6,367,008
• Equity at exit: $2,379,906

Cash invested: $343,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11957

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $50,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,424
• Tax from tax record: −$527 /mo · $6,320/yr
• Insurance: −$510
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,500
• Net cashflow: $32,018

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,471

Max offer price $1,225,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32,711	-5% $32,365	+0% $32,018	+5% $31,671	+10% $31,324
Rent	-10% $28,068	-5% $30,043	+0% $32,018	+5% $33,993	+10% $35,968
Rate	-1.0pp $32,635	-0.5pp $32,329	base $32,018	+0.5pp $31,700	+1.0pp $31,378

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $306,250
• Closing costs: $36,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 Plum Island Ln Orient, NY	4.0	4.5	2600	$50,000	$19.23	45d	1	0.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $1,225,000
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $1,450,000 Active
4. 2026-01-02
   historical $1,450,000
5. 2001-03-23
   soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,320 · $527/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,511 · $1,126/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,191/yr (+$599/mo · 113.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $600,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$68,619
• − Property taxes: −$6,320
• − Insurance: −$6,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$48,000
• − Management: −$48,000
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$35,636
• Taxable income: $387,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$92,891
• After-tax cash flow: $291,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oysterponds Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621930
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $71,948
• Composite: 42.9/100
• National rank: #6712
• State rank: #506 of 755 in NY

Livability — Orient

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1080
• US rank: #21725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orient, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.41%
• Current HPI: 265.16
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1601.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $1,225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Listed $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Coming Soon $1,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,320 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.