449 Spring St · Centerville, PA 15358

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1920 2,561 sqft lot $75/sqft · 43% below area Est $131k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS TAKE NOTE, this property along with 407 Lower Spring Lane (ML# 1723213) should be in your portfolio This well maintained 2 Bedroom is anxiously waiting for its new owner. Move in ready, it has 2 nice sized bedrooms, updated electric, and a 2 car tandem integral garage. There is plenty of extra space in the basement for storage. The extra room in the basement is left to your imagination, office, playroom, you decide. This one is worth your consideration. SELLER NEEDS TO SELL BOTH PROPERTIES TOGETHER so don't pass up this opportunity.

Key facts

• 2,561 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($948 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#864 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bethlehem-Center SD (rural): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #448 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $604 of equity ($519 loan paydown + $85 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $75k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.14%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,173
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -42.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Prichard Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	980 (-1%)	11mo	$132,000	$135	80
235 Prichard St	0.19mi	2/1.5	980 (-1%)	12mo	$128,500	$131	76
132 Armour St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,034 (+4%)	2mo	$91,000	$88	67
130 Armour St	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	994 (0%)	20mo	$135,000	$136	62
335 Main St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,134 (+14%)	4mo	$146,000	$129	58
305 Main St	0.43mi	2/1.5	1,037 (+4%)	17mo	$125,000	$121	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.11% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $12,870
• Equity at exit: $22,205

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $40,423
• Equity at exit: $27,035

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15358

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,136/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $657

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $251	+0% $230	+5% $209	+10% $188
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $193	+0% $230	+5% $267	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $249	base $230	+0.5pp $211	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-28
   listed $75,000 Active 551-char remark

   Show marketing remark (551 chars)

   INVESTORS TAKE NOTE, this property along with 407 Lower Spring Lane (ML# 1723213) should be in your portfolio This well maintained 2 Bedroom is anxiously waiting for its new owner. Move in ready, it has 2 nice sized bedrooms, updated electric, and a 2 car tandem integral garage. There is plenty of extra space in the basement for storage. The extra room in the basement is left to your imagination, office, playroom, you decide. This one is worth your consideration. SELLER NEEDS TO SELL BOTH PROPERTIES TOGETHER so don't pass up this opportunity.

2. 1994-05-18
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,136 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,136
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$910
• − Management: −$910
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $1,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$400
• After-tax cash flow: $2,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem-Center SD
• NCES district ID: 4203600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,354
• Composite: 24.81/100
• National rank: #7596
• State rank: #448 of 539 in PA

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #864
• US rank: #9044

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, PA
• City population: 1,605
• Population (ZIP): 1,141

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,060 people
• By 2030: 207,168 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 202,738 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 195,269 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 175,588 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 145,827 · -29.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+22.8 2016: R+25.3 2012: R+13.3 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.11%
• Current HPI: 148.6231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+275.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-28 Listed $75,000 West Penn MLS
• 1994-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,136 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.