886 Independence Station Rd · Independence, KY 41051

$255,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1954 1.05 ac lot Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What a rare find! This hidden gem has been lovingly owned and cared for by the same family since it was built--now its ready for its next chapter. This solid ranch offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths, with the potential to easily convert back to a 3-bedroom layout. Built to last, the home features real hardwood floors, a spacious 5-foot-wide hallway, and a large eat-in kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Recent updates include a new roof, giving you a head start while leaving room to add your own personal touches. The partially finished lower level adds even more living space, complete with a bedroom, full bath, sauna, and walkout access--ideal for guests or flexible living. Step outsid

Key facts

• Spacious hallway
• Large eat-in kitchen
• Real hardwood floors

Tags

• REAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS HALLWAY
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW ROOF
• PARTIALLY FINISHED LOWER LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-344/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#130 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Middle School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade D, #40 of 217 statewide, top 19%, 616 students, 48% FRL); Simon Kenton High School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 1,859 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,173 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4070 Kimberly Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+3%)	10mo	$235,000	$218	73
4258 Berrywood Dr #1	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-5%)	4mo	$158,000	$158	56
1079 Birch Tree Ln	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (-7%)	8mo	$238,000	$243	55
3903 Hunters Green Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	995 (-5%)	4mo	$255,000	$256	54
4079 Elizabeth Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,180 (+12%)	8mo	$299,000	$253	54
4749 Buttonwood Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,028 (-2%)	11mo	$230,000	$224	53
4270 Catalpa Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (0%)	10mo	$265,000	$252	52
1052 Alpine Ct	0.70mi	3/1.5 (+1)	972 (-7%)	1mo	$232,000	$239	47
1135 Chestnut Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5 (+1)	989 (-6%)	1mo	$233,000	$236	44
4257 Ashgrove Ct	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	972 (-7%)	10mo	$172,000	$177	41
1170 Tyler Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,182 (+13%)	0mo	$295,000	$250	36
4252 Catalpa Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	918 (-13%)	10mo	$270,000	$294	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,440
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-15,533
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41051

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,619/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,998

Max offer price $249,941

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $44	+0% $-29	+5% $-101	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-106	+0% $-29	+5% $49	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $36	base $-29	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-162

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9552 Apple Valley Dr Independence, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,456	$1.32	3d	6	0.33mi
3924 Trappers Ct Florence, KY	3.0	1.5	1384	$2,380	$1.72	45d	1	0.42mi
1047 Alpine Ct Independence, KY	3.0	2.0	1035	$2,400	$2.32	25d	1	0.74mi
3000 Stoneybrook Ln Elsmere, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,660	$1.68	6d	17	1.11mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $255,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,193 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$574/yr (+$48/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,619
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,822
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,157
• After-tax cash flow: $814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenton County
• NCES district ID: 2103090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $66,183
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #3789
• State rank: #14 of 165 in KY

Livability — Independence

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #6165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 33,054
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,054
• Household income: $104,201
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.60%
• Current HPI: 218.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $255,000 NKMLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,619 · -6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.