15A Sherman Ave · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$975,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2009 7,841 sqft lot $631/sqft · 15% below area Est $1143k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Built In 2009 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Home. Living Room Has Fireplace, Dining Room, Family Room, Kitchen W/Breakfast Bar, Full Basement With Outside Entrance And High Ceiling, Attached Garage And Economical Natural Gas Heat. South Of Highway And Near Beaches. $469,000., Additional information: Appearance:Exc,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• Walkout basement
• Home office den
• Formal dining room

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• HOME OFFICE DEN
• SUN DRENCHED PRIMARY EN SUITE
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• REAR YARD PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private parking; 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Actual condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Two levels (total rooms: 11)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; His and hers closets; Primary bathroom; Covered patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Full unfinished walk-out basement; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $975k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $958k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $946k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,583/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $29k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $273k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($946k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $455k; list at $975k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $945,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,142,793
• List price: $975,000
• Delta: -14.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Harbor Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,458 (-6%)	1mo	$1,120,000	$768	68
1 Springville Cir	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,500 (-3%)	8mo	$1,350,000	$900	65
4 Wells Ln	0.18mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,378 (-11%)	0mo	$1,115,000	$809	64
12 Hampton Bays Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-15%)	2mo	$967,500	$733	63
19 Shinnecock Rd	0.32mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,656 (+7%)	2mo	$1,585,000	$957	61
5 Coolidge Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	8mo	$699,000	$499	57
4A Last	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,623 (+5%)	8mo	$2,400,000	$1,479	56
56 W Donellan Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-13%)	1mo	$795,000	$593	54
18 Alanson Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	4mo	$985,000	$704	52
40 Donellan Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-9%)	6mo	$935,000	$666	50
11 Staller Blvd	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,626 (+5%)	12mo	$998,000	$614	49
34 Shinnecock Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+7%)	11mo	$1,440,000	$873	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-13,155
• Equity at exit: $145,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $339,633
• Equity at exit: $84,300

Cash invested: $273,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,583 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,113
• Tax from tax record: −$569 /mo · $6,825/yr
• Insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,013
• Net cashflow: $1,483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,706

Max offer price $975,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,035	-5% $1,759	+0% $1,483	+5% $1,207	+10% $931
Rent	-10% $726	-5% $1,104	+0% $1,483	+5% $1,861	+10% $2,240
Rate	-1.0pp $1,974	-0.5pp $1,731	base $1,483	+0.5pp $1,230	+1.0pp $973

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $243,750
• Closing costs: $29,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	20d	1	0.16mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	25d	1	0.31mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	20d	1	0.42mi
35 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	2221	$15,000	$6.75	18d	1	0.44mi
14 Canal Way Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	2000	$59,000	$29.50	25d	1	0.50mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	25d	1	0.50mi
36 Nautilus Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	1726	$36,000	$20.86	44d	1	0.51mi
23 N Westbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	2212	$12,000	$5.42	25d	1	0.52mi
7 Huckleberry Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	1608	$15,000	$9.33	0d	1	0.53mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	44d	1	0.59mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	44d	1	0.61mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	25d	1	0.65mi
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	44d	1	0.70mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	44d	1	0.76mi
81 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.5	1664	$25,000	$15.02	44d	1	0.78mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	44d	1	0.82mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,475	$4.32	0d	1	0.82mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	25d	1	0.83mi
8 Wakeman Ct Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1932	$11,000	$5.69	25d	1	0.91mi
37 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1640	$20,000	$12.20	44d	1	0.91mi
6 Lynn Ct Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1212	$2,900	$2.39	44d	1	1.15mi
9 Tramposh Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	2092	$10,000	$4.78	6d	1	1.18mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	25d	1	1.20mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	44d	1	1.21mi
129 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.5	2000	$18,000	$9.00	18d	1	1.24mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	44d	1	1.28mi
61 Atlantic Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	2130	$25,000	$11.74	7d	1	1.33mi
41 Cormorant Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1874	$25,000	$13.34	20d	1	1.35mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	6d	1	1.47mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.48mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $975,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $975,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $975,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $975,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $975,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $975,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $975,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $975,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $975,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $975,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $975,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $975,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $975,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $975,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $975,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $975,000 Active 809-char remark
17. 2017-03-23
    soldstatus $455,000 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Built In 2009 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Home. Living Room Has Fireplace, Dining Room, Family Room, Kitchen W/ Breakfast Bar, Full Basement With Outside Entrance And High Ceiling, Attached Garage And Economical Natural Gas Heat. South Of Highway And Near Beaches. $469,000.

18. 2017-03-23
    soldstatus $455,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Built In 2009 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Home. Living Room Has Fireplace, Dining Room, Family Room, Kitchen W/ Breakfast Bar, Full Basement With Outside Entrance And High Ceiling, Attached Garage And Economical Natural Gas Heat. South Of Highway And Near Beaches. $469,000.

19. 2017-02-01
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Built In 2009 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Home. Living Room Has Fireplace, Dining Room, Family Room, Kitchen W/ Breakfast Bar, Full Basement With Outside Entrance And High Ceiling, Attached Garage And Economical Natural Gas Heat. South Of Highway And Near Beaches. $469,000.

20. 2017-01-06
    listed $469,000 New

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Built In 2009 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Home. Living Room Has Fireplace, Dining Room, Family Room, Kitchen W/Breakfast Bar, Full Basement With Outside Entrance And High Ceiling, Attached Garage And Economical Natural Gas Heat. South Of Highway And Near Beaches. $469,000., Additional information: Appearance:Exc,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

21. 2017-01-06
    listed $469,000 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    Built In 2009 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Home. Living Room Has Fireplace, Dining Room, Family Room, Kitchen W/Breakfast Bar, Full Basement With Outside Entrance And High Ceiling, Attached Garage And Economical Natural Gas Heat. South Of Highway And Near Beaches. $469,000., Additional information: Appearance:Exc,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

22. 2012-10-09
    historical
23. 2012-04-29
    listed $419,000
24. 2009-11-09
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,825 · $569/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,651 · $971/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,826/yr (+$402/mo · 70.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $115,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,615
• − Property taxes: −$6,825
• − Insurance: −$4,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,200
• − Management: −$9,200
• − Depreciation: −$28,364
• Taxable income: $1,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$461
• After-tax cash flow: $17,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+622.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-23 Sold (MLS) $455,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-23 Sold (MLS) $455,000 MLSLI
• 2017-02-01 Pending — MLSLI
• 2017-01-06 Listed $469,000 MLSLI
• 2017-01-06 Listed $469,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-29 Listed $419,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $6,825 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.