4440 Shirley Ave · Jacksonville, FL 32210

$173,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1951 7,840 sqft lot Est $203k · 15% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This concrete block 3bd 1bth home in Avondale's Fairfax neighborhood offering a great opportunity for renovation and value-add. Just minutes from Riverside, Murray Hill, and Downtown Jacksonville, the location offers strong appeal for future resale or rental potential. The home features a new roof (2023) and an HVAC system (2018), providing a solid foundation for improvements. With a spacious layout, large backyard, and a detached 2-car garage, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to renovate and build equity. Home is in need of updating and repairs and is being sold AS-IS. Seller will make No Repairs. No Lowball Offers, No Blind Offers, and No Assignment of Con

Key facts

• Rental potential
• Large backyard
• Hvac system

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• RENOVATION OPPORTUNITY
• RENTAL POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Chain-link full fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Open floorplan; Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($175/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fishweir Elementary School (math 66% / reading 71%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 465 students, 29% FRL); Lake Shore Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 972 students, 75% FRL); Riverside High School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #424 of 667 statewide, top 64%, 1,567 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $173k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,793 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,860
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4360 Palmer Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (+1%)	8mo	$200,000	$205	77
4768 Beverly Cir	0.52mi	3/1.0	934 (-3%)	4mo	$189,000	$202	67
4348 Beverly Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,033 (+7%)	11mo	$300,000	$290	65
4440 Beverly Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (+10%)	6mo	$305,000	$286	64
4436 Melrose Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	0mo	$260,000	$241	60
4763 Sefa Cir N	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,018 (+5%)	10mo	$214,000	$210	54
4571 Shelby Ave	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	873 (-10%)	4mo	$170,000	$195	53
4238 Woodmere St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,091 (+13%)	7mo	$275,000	$252	52
4748 Sefa Cir N	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,047 (+8%)	9mo	$160,000	$153	52
4732 Wheeler Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,055 (+9%)	3mo	$198,000	$188	51
4720 Manchester Rd	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+10%)	10mo	$105,000	$98	39
1647 Charon Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (+11%)	9mo	$265,000	$246	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-28,497
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-29,230
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32210

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,980/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $64	+0% $15	+5% $-34	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-52	+0% $15	+5% $81	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $59	base $15	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4608 Wheeler Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1025	$2,000	$1.95	25d	1	0.57mi
4776 Cardinal Blvd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	959	$1,550	$1.62	25d	1	0.59mi
3946 Saint Johns Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,486	$2.76	3d	18	0.65mi
4844 Merrimac Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,325	$1.62	25d	1	0.76mi
3867 Herschel St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1092	$2,100	$1.92	25d	1	0.84mi
5139 Camille Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,625	$1.48	3d	1	0.88mi
5215 San Juan Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,075	$1.43	9d	1	0.97mi
1815 Van Wert Ave Unit 3 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,350	$1.23	23d	1	1.04mi
3434 Blanding Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1101	$1,800	$1.63	4d	2	1.20mi
1654 Talbot Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,600	$1.90	6d	1	1.34mi
5615 San Juan Ave #208 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1115	$1,200	$1.08	25d	1	1.38mi
1379 Ingleside Ave Unit B Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,291	$1.43	16d	1	1.40mi
5351 Royce Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	25d	1	1.43mi
2039 Niblick Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,275	$1.51	4d	10	1.45mi
1284 Ingleside Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	25d	1	1.45mi
5377 Royce Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	19d	1	1.47mi
5363 Poppy Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,445	$1.39	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $173,000 Active
3. 2025-01-21
   historical $1,050
4. 2025-01-19
   listed $1,050
5. 1997-10-27
   soldstatus $61,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,980 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,980 · $332/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$3,980
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable loss: −$2,655
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 65,729
• Household income: $61,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3605.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -314.81%
• Current HPI: 281.2688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.11%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+179.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $173,000 realMLS
• 2025-01-21 Rental Removed $1,050 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-01-19 Listed for Rent $1,050 TURBOTENANT
• 1997-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $61,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,980 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.