16889 Springfield Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$209,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2020 Poor condition 0.78 ac lot $106/sqft · 17% above area Est $180k · 17% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home nestled on a serene . 78-acre lot in Conroe, TX. With just under an acre of land, this property offers the perfect blend of privacy and room to grow. Inside, you’ll find an open and inviting layout with generously sized bedrooms designed for comfort. The primary suite features a private ensuite bathroom, creating your own retreat at the end of the day. Whether you’re hosting gatherings in the open living spaces or enjoying the peaceful outdoors, this home has plenty of room for both entertaining and relaxation. Don’t miss your chance to own a beautiful slice of Conroe living with space to spread out, both inside and out.

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 40 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story layout; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 2020; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms (all on the first floor, including the primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen and family room combined; Kitchen and dining area combined; Tub with shower; Washer hookup
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.94%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 16.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,186
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $25,413
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1116
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,970 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$378 /mo · $4,531/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,522

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $413	+0% $354	+5% $295	+10% $235
Rent	-10% $119	-5% $237	+0% $354	+5% $471	+10% $589
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $407	base $354	+0.5pp $300	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,230	$1.33	0d	13	0.27mi
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $209,900 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-05-01
    listed $209,900 Active 697-char remark
11. 2026-04-10
    historical
12. 2025-10-24
    price $216,900
13. 2025-09-19
    listed $219,900 Active
14. 2025-09-08
    historical
15. 2025-07-07
    price $226,900
16. 2025-06-25
    listed $231,900 Active
17. 2025-06-20
    historical
18. 2025-06-18
    status Active
19. 2025-06-11
    status Pending
20. 2025-05-21
    status Active
21. 2025-05-06
    status Pending
22. 2025-04-17
    status Option Pending
23. 2025-04-12
    price $231,900
24. 2025-04-04
    price $234,900
25. 2025-03-28
    price $235,000
26. 2025-03-20
    price $240,000
27. 2025-03-10
    price $245,000
28. 2025-02-14
    listed $250,000 Active
29. 2025-02-14
    soldstatus
30. 2025-02-14
    soldstatus
31. 2011-10-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,531 · $378/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,531 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$4,531
• − Insurance: −$6,168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,851
• − Management: −$2,851
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $1,376
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$330
• After-tax cash flow: $3,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof replacement, siding repair, flooring replacement, HVAC system upgrade, and landscaping improvements. Significant investment is needed to bring the property up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of wear and possible damage.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling or damaged in places.
• Major flooring — Worn and may need replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — Wear and discoloration.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No specific details, but overall condition suggests need for maintenance or replacement.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and in need of maintenance or improvement to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Improves both resale and rental value by addressing a major issue.
• Both exterior siding repair/replacement — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living conditions and enhances property value.
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property value and curb appeal, attracting more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of wear and possible damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling or damaged in places.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No specific details, but overall condition suggests need for maintenance or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and in need of maintenance or improvement to enhance curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — Improves both resale and rental value by addressing a major issue. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair/replacement — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — Improves living conditions and enhances property value. ↑
• Both HVAC system upgrade — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property value and curb appeal, attracting more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $216,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $226,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $231,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-14 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2011-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+91.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,531 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.