203 Loon River Dr · Houston, TX 77336

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,963 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1960 0.48 ac lot $117/sqft · 17% below area Est $242k · at est. $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next great opportunity! This charming home sits proudly on an oversized corner lot and features a sparkling in-ground pool—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, and enjoying year-round outdoor living. Step inside to a spacious, light-filled living room with clear views of the pool, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor feel. The home offers a well-designed kitchen and breakfast area combo, ideal for everyday dining and gathering. Durable tile flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while all bedrooms feature cozy carpet for added comfort. Located just minutes from the beautiful shores of Lake Houston, this property delivers both convenience and lifestyle. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking for a strong opportunity, this home checks all the boxes. Sellers are very motivated—don’t miss your chance to make this one yours!

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• In-ground pool
• Breakfast area combo

Tags

• IN-GROUND POOL
• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• WELL-DESIGNED KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA COMBO
• DURABLE TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-830/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,833
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -4.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
231 Loon River Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,833 (-7%)	3mo	$314,900	$172	82
227 Glencroft Ct	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (-0%)	4mo	$325,000	$166	78
24118 E Lake Houston Pkwy	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (-1%)	3mo	$230,000	$118	72
24721 Thornbluff Briar Trl	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,918 (-2%)	1mo	$259,990	$136	67
24711 Windward Birch Way	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,918 (-2%)	4mo	$271,990	$142	66
509 Emerald Thicket Ln	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,918 (-2%)	3mo	$249,990	$130	65
310 Cherry Valley Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (+12%)	3mo	$339,000	$155	64
24707 White Libertia Ct	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,860 (-5%)	3mo	$259,990	$140	61
24702 Windward Birch Ln	0.43mi	3/3.0	1,774 (-10%)	2mo	$254,990	$144	58
24702 Stablewood Frst	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,774 (-10%)	2mo	$254,990	$144	57
24705 Sonora Crescent Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,689 (-14%)	3mo	$288,990	$171	50
24703 Windward Birch Way	0.43mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,253 (+15%)	2mo	$300,490	$133	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-41,561
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-41,402
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,522/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,181

Max offer price $217,782

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24523 Whitesail Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,800	$1.19	44d	1	0.26mi
24527 Lightwoods Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,100	$1.00	44d	1	0.29mi
408 Emerald Thicket Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,200	$1.25	44d	1	0.38mi
24719 Colony Meadow Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,200	$1.36	44d	1	0.86mi
24730 Russet Bluff Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$2,150	$1.34	1d	1	0.93mi
24118 Grey Fox Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1543	$1,425	$0.92	44d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $230,000 Pending 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-05-02
    price $230,000 896-char remark

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    Welcome to your next great opportunity! This charming home sits proudly on an oversized corner lot and features a sparkling in-ground pool—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, and enjoying year-round outdoor living. Step inside to a spacious, light-filled living room with clear views of the pool, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor feel. The home offers a well-designed kitchen and breakfast area combo, ideal for everyday dining and gathering. Durable tile flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while all bedrooms feature cozy carpet for added comfort. Located just minutes from the beautiful shores of Lake Houston, this property delivers both convenience and lifestyle. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking for a strong opportunity, this home checks all the boxes. Sellers are very motivated—don’t miss your chance to make this one yours!

13. 2026-02-10
    price $235,000 896-char remark

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    Welcome to your next great opportunity! This charming home sits proudly on an oversized corner lot and features a sparkling in-ground pool—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, and enjoying year-round outdoor living. Step inside to a spacious, light-filled living room with clear views of the pool, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor feel. The home offers a well-designed kitchen and breakfast area combo, ideal for everyday dining and gathering. Durable tile flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while all bedrooms feature cozy carpet for added comfort. Located just minutes from the beautiful shores of Lake Houston, this property delivers both convenience and lifestyle. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking for a strong opportunity, this home checks all the boxes. Sellers are very motivated—don’t miss your chance to make this one yours!

14. 2025-11-15
    listed $240,000 Active 896-char remark

    Show marketing remark (896 chars)

    Welcome to your next great opportunity! This charming home sits proudly on an oversized corner lot and features a sparkling in-ground pool—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, and enjoying year-round outdoor living. Step inside to a spacious, light-filled living room with clear views of the pool, creating a seamless indoor-outdoor feel. The home offers a well-designed kitchen and breakfast area combo, ideal for everyday dining and gathering. Durable tile flooring runs throughout the main living areas, while all bedrooms feature cozy carpet for added comfort. Located just minutes from the beautiful shores of Lake Houston, this property delivers both convenience and lifestyle. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or an investor looking for a strong opportunity, this home checks all the boxes. Sellers are very motivated—don’t miss your chance to make this one yours!

15. 2021-11-27
    historical
16. 2021-09-19
    listed $199,999 Active
17. 2015-07-30
    soldstatus
18. 2015-07-29
    historical
19. 2015-07-28
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2015-07-23
    status Pending
21. 2015-07-14
    status Option Pending
22. 2015-04-03
    listed $130,000 Active
23. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,522 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,522 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,522
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,675
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+76.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-09-19 Listed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2015-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-07-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-07-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-07-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-03 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,522 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.