26762 Lantern Ln · Roman Forest, TX 77357

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 204 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 9,000 sqft lot $112/sqft · 22% above area Est $115k · 22% over ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath Doublewide Mobile Home. Enjoy peaceful country living in this well-maintained property featuring its own well and aerobic septic system. Priced to Sell Quickly!!!

Key facts

• 9,000 sq ft lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 204 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 984 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.14%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,994
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 21.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,390
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,134
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 984
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,687/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $338	+0% $299	+5% $259	+10% $219
Rent	-10% $159	-5% $229	+0% $299	+5% $369	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $334	base $299	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
630 Magnolia Bnd Roman Forest, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,545	$1.07	25d	1	1.34mi
630 Magnolia Bnd Roman Forest, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,545	$1.07	0d	1	1.34mi
634 Magnolia Bnd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,485	$1.02	21d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $140,000 Pending 204 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active Under Contract 203 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $140,000 Active Under Contract 202 DOM
4. 2026-03-15
   price $140,000 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath Doublewide Mobile Home. Enjoy peaceful country living in this well-maintained property featuring its own well and aerobic septic system. Priced to Sell Quickly!!!

5. 2025-11-10
   listed $150,000 Active 189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (189 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath Doublewide Mobile Home. Enjoy peaceful country living in this well-maintained property featuring its own well and aerobic septic system. Priced to Sell Quickly!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,687 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,687 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,687
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$370
• After-tax cash flow: $3,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior and interior, including new siding, flooring, and painting, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major paint — Peeling and chipping
• Major flooring — Worn carpet
• Major interior walls — Painted walls with visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability
• Resale new flooring — Improves living space and reduces maintenance
• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances the home's appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Peeling and chipping	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Painted walls with visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new siding — Enhances curb appeal and durability ↑
• Resale new flooring — Improves living space and reduces maintenance ↑
• Resale paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances the home's appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $150,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,687 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.