920 Maple Ln #3 · Sedro-Woolley, WA 98284

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1977 $112/sqft · 84% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

ALL AGES WELCOME at Maple Lane Estates Community located in Sedro Woolley. Spacious 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers a comfortable & functional layout design for easy living. Exceptionally large primary suite, complete w/ walk-in closet & private en-suite bathroom. A well sized second bedroom is ideal for guests, hobbies, or a home office. The cozy family room flows seamlessly into the dining area just off the kitchen, creating an inviting space for gatherings & effortless entertaining. Step outside to a beautifully built, oversized covered deck - perfect for year round relaxation, morning coffee, or hosting friends. Backyard shed offers convenient storage & extra room

Key facts

• Backyard shed
• Parking
• Built 1977

Tags

• OVERSIZED COVERED DECK
• BACKYARD SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 2.4% in Sedro-Woolley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.46%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,000
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 84.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Maple Ln #11	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	3mo	$70,000	$61	98
920 Maple Ln #15	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$70,000	$61	94
22661 Rhodes Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	15mo	$490,000	$378	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $130,517
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.33×
• Total profit: $336,830
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98284

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,161 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $364/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $947

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 Trail Rd Sedro Woolley, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$2,500	$3.16	21d	2	0.26mi
801 Westview Dr Sedro Woolley, WA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1290	$2,100	$1.63	21d	8	0.38mi
413 Rowland Rd Sedro Woolley, WA	2.0	2.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	44d	1	0.80mi
320 Birchwood Ln Sedro-Woolley, WA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	44d	1	0.99mi
1129 State St Unit 11292 Sedro-Woolley, WA	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,850	$1.76	44d	1	1.32mi
1133 Wicker Rd Sedro Woolley, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,695	$2.34	21d	3	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-04-18
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$900/yr (+$75/mo · 247.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥83°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$364
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $9,799
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,352
• After-tax cash flow: $9,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedro-Woolley School District
• NCES district ID: 5307740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,385
• Composite: 47.45/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #117 of 291 in WA

Livability — Sedro-Woolley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sedro-Woolley, WA
• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,835
• Household income: $93,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.42%
• Current HPI: 1280.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $364 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.