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10519 Scrub Oak Dr
D- Composite 37.11
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.1/15.0
  • Cash flow +6.6/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.9/10.0
  • Schools +3.9/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.6/5.0
  • DSCR +0.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$310,000

10519 Scrub Oak Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 7,501 sqft lot 3-car garage $175/sqft · 10% below area Est $345k · 10% under $95/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to your sanctuary in the premier master-planned community of Sierra Vista! This stunning single-story residence at 10519 Scrub Oak Dr perfectly blends modern elegance with everyday functionality in a gated community. The open-concept, split floorplan, interior features high ceilings and luxury tile plank flooring that flows seamlessly into a gourmet kitchen boasting granite countertops, upgraded cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and a massive island perfect for entertaining. Retreat to the private primary suite, which offers a spa-like ensuite bath and a spacious walk-in closet.

Key facts

  • Junior olympic pool
  • Fitness center
  • Gourmet kitchen

Tags

GOURMET KITCHENCOVERED PATIOFENCED BACKYARDJUNIOR OLYMPIC POOLSPLASH PADFITNESS CENTER

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-581 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (33.1% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (11.5% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $207k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $207,436 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.89%
Cap rate
4.30%
Cash-on-cash
-7.11%
DSCR
0.68
GRM
9.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$345,231
List price
$310,000
Delta
-10.21%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
10510 Watershed Dr 0.19mi 3/2.0 1,641 (-7%) 2mo $258,000 $157 77
1806 Grass Valley Dr 0.29mi 3/2.0 1,662 (-6%) 1mo $379,900 $229 76
10618 Sutter Creek Dr 0.25mi 3/2.0 1,872 (+6%) 4mo $408,900 $218 76
1614 Diamond Mountain Dr 0.37mi 3/2.0 1,710 (-3%) 3mo $265,000 $155 75
1910 Temple Grove Dr 0.42mi 3/2.0 1,837 (+4%) 2mo $368,990 $201 72
1214 Red Hills Dr 0.48mi 3/2.0 1,689 (-4%) 1mo $279,000 $165 70
2107 Tioga View Dr 0.40mi 3/2.0 1,662 (-6%) 3mo $359,900 $217 69
10906 Amador Peak Dr 0.34mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,878 (+6%) 1mo $329,990 $176 68
10931 Amador Peak Dr 0.42mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,878 (+6%) 1mo $319,990 $170 64
10514 Sutter Creek Dr 0.28mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,941 (+10%) 3mo $359,900 $185 63
10430 Sherwin Pass Dr 0.35mi 4/3.0 (+1) 1,924 (+9%) 4mo $279,900 $145 56
10513 Mount Tallac Ct 0.34mi 4/2.5 (+1) 2,003 (+13%) 4mo $339,900 $170 52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-34.2%
Equity multiple
-0.08×
Total profit
$-93,691
Equity at exit
$46,222
10-year hold
IRR
-69.9%
Equity multiple
-0.78×
Total profit
$-154,391
Equity at exit
$26,803

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
58 active · 27 under contract
Months of supply
10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$321,000 ($171/sqft)
Median days on market
50 d
This list price
31% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+14.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY
0.4%
Active inventory
1445
Price-to-rent
9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,745 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,626
Tax from tax record
$833 /mo · $9,991/yr
Insurance
$129
Flood insurance flood zone
−$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA
$95
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$576
Net cashflow
$-581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,480
Max offer price $207,436
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-405 -5% $-493 +0% $-581 +5% $-668 +10% $-756
Rent -10% $-797 -5% $-689 +0% $-581 +5% $-472 +10% $-364
Rate -1.0pp $-424 -0.5pp $-502 base $-581 +0.5pp $-661 +1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$77,500
Closing costs
$9,300
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 3.0 2067 $3,450 $1.67 56d 1 0.22mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,700 $1.74 31d 1 0.28mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1780 $2,775 $1.56 93d 1 0.29mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.5 1940 $2,875 $1.48 52d 1 0.30mi
10607 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1615 $2,775 $1.72 0d 1 0.32mi
1222 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,447 $1.58 23d 1 0.33mi
1234 Scarlet Creek Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,650 $1.71 36d 1 0.36mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1548 $2,650 $1.71 23d 1 0.37mi
1207 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 2070 $2,300 $1.11 35d 1 0.38mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1615 $2,725 $1.69 36d 1 0.41mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX 4.0 3.5 2070 $2,700 $1.30 93d 1 0.44mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1596 $2,850 $1.79 69d 1 0.45mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1522 $2,539 $1.67 7d 1 0.45mi
10534 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.5 1804 $2,770 $1.54 0d 1 0.45mi
10522 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 2.0 1522 $2,539 $1.67 0d 1 0.45mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1802 $2,545 $1.41 93d 1 0.45mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1770 $2,287 $1.29 0d 17 0.53mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1731 $2,447 $1.41 0d 8 0.87mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX 3.0–4.0 2.0–2.5 1731 $2,469 $1.43 93d 7 0.87mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 4.0 2531 $2,850 $1.13 93d 1 0.94mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX 3.0 3.0 1999 $2,600 $1.30 93d 1 1.08mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1844 $2,000 $1.08 62d 1 1.19mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX 4.0 2.0 1593 $1,836 $1.15 21d 1 1.29mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX 3.0 2.5 1866 $2,121 $1.14 0d 1 1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Located in a subdivision
HOA & community
Association managed by Principal Mgmt GroupAnnual association fee of $1,145Association amenities: clubhouse, controlled access, fitness center, meeting/banquet/party room, party room, picnic area, playground, pickleball, poolAssociation fee covers clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilities

Exterior

Parking
Attached 3-car garage
Security
Security gate
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertySingle-story (all main rooms listed on first level)
Construction
Brick constructionBlock foundationComposition roofBuilt in 2022
Exterior features
Back yard fencingFenceAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on the first floor (14x16)Bedroom on the first floor (11x13)Bedroom on the first floor (10x12)First-floor officeFirst-floor living roomFirst-floor dining room
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)HVAC is energy efficient
Interior features
One fireplace6 total rooms
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

HOA detail $95/mo · $1,140/yr

Likely covers
security

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $310,000 Active 15 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 13 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 12 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 11 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 10 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 7 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
  8. 2026-07-28
    days on market $310,000 Active 4 DOM
  9. 2026-07-26
    days on marketlisting id $310,000 Active 2 DOM
  10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $310,000 Active 3 DOM
  11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM
  12. 2026-07-21
    days on marketlisting id $310,000 Active 1 DOM
  13. 2026-07-14
    days on market $310,000 Active 91 DOM
  14. 2026-07-13
    days on market $310,000 Active 90 DOM
  15. 2026-07-13
    days on market $310,000 Active 89 DOM
  16. 2026-07-11
    days on market $310,000 Active 88 DOM
  17. 2026-07-10
    days on market $310,000 Active 87 DOM
  18. 2026-07-09
    days on market $310,000 Active 86 DOM
  19. 2026-07-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 84 DOM
  20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 83 DOM
  21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,000 Active 82 DOM
  22. 2026-07-05
    days on market $310,000 Active 81 DOM
  23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $310,000 Active 80 DOM
  24. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $310,000 Active 79 DOM
  25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
  26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 77 DOM
  27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $315,000 Active 76 DOM
  28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $315,000 Active 75 DOM
  29. 2026-06-27
    days on market $315,000 Active 74 DOM
  30. 2026-06-26
    days on market $315,000 Active 73 DOM
  31. 2026-06-24
    days on market $315,000 Active 71 DOM
  32. 2026-06-22
    days on market $315,000 Active 69 DOM
  33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $315,000 Active 68 DOM
  34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $315,000 Active 65 DOM
  35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $315,000 Active 64 DOM
  36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $315,000 Active 63 DOM
  37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
  38. 2026-06-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 60 DOM
  39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 59 DOM
  40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 56 DOM
  41. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 55 DOM
  42. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
  43. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
  44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
  45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 49 DOM
  46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
  47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 47 DOM
  48. 2026-04-14
    listed $315,000 Active 983-char remark
  49. 2025-05-17
    historical
  50. 2025-05-05
    price $310,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$9,991 · $833/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$9,991 · $833/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$32,936
− Mortgage interest
−$17,365
− Property taxes
−$9,991
− Insurance
−$2,348
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,635
− Management
−$2,635
− HOA
−$1,140
− Depreciation
−$9,018
Taxable loss
−$12,195
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,927
After-tax cash flow
$-4,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,840–$26,520 screening

This single-story home in Sterling Lakes is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, roof, exterior, flooring, and interior walls/paint. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed for the exterior and landscaping. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
  • Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and enhances comfort

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Alvin ISD
NCES district ID
4808090
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$66,740
Composite
38.96/100
National rank
#4080
State rank
#255 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score
65/100
State rank
#701
US rank
#13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population
26,236
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
52,747
Household income
$119,287
Rent vs Own
9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
420,414 people
By 2030
457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040
532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050
605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075
779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100
883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin
R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing
+9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-7.5% since first listed
17 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-24 Listed $310,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-23 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-07-21 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-20 Listed $314,999 HARMLS
  • 2026-07-14 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-07-01 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-04-14 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-05-17 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-05-05 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-04-22 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-04-22 Relisted HARMLS
  • 2025-04-14 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-03-20 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-03-19 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-03-11 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-02-26 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-02-07 Listed $335,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+78.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,991 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…