Kitson Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$247,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily · 401 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $247,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,920.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Hockley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 401 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,231 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 401 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.53%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,920
• List price: $247,990
• Delta: -20.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16830 Spotted Oak Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+1%)	0mo	$238,990	$162	88
16850 Spotted Oak Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+1%)	0mo	$232,991	$158	88
27310 Meadowlark Cove Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+9%)	0mo	$278,990	$174	84
28910 Bison Haven Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-10%)	0mo	$209,991	$159	82
28842 Golden Wheat Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+5%)	0mo	$244,190	$159	73
16819 Spotted Oak Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-10%)	1mo	$203,591	$154	72
16839 Spotted Oak Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-10%)	1mo	$218,990	$165	69
28806 Golden Wheat Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-10%)	1mo	$229,990	$174	67
16822 Spotted Oak Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+12%)	0mo	$251,990	$153	64
16210 Domestic Dove Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-10%)	0mo	$246,990	$187	64
29102 Samuel Gardens Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-3%)	0mo	$257,590	$181	61
16843 Spotted Oak Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+12%)	1mo	$238,690	$145	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-73,679
• Equity at exit: $46,359

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-112,148
• Equity at exit: $26,883

Cash invested: $87,058 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $259,995 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,630
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,664/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,720

Max offer price $273,861

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-41	-5% $-149	+0% $-256	+5% $-364	+10% $-471
Rent	-10% $-445	-5% $-351	+0% $-256	+5% $-161	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-177	base $-256	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,730
• Closing costs: $9,328
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,990	$1.35	4d	1	0.28mi
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	93d	1	0.36mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $247,990 Active 401 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $247,990 Active 399 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $247,990 Active 398 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $247,990 Active 397 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $247,990 Active 396 DOM
6. 2026-08-01
   price $247,990 Active 393 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $252,990 Active 393 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $252,990 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $252,990 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $252,990 Active 388 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $252,990 Active 386 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $252,990 Active 385 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $252,990 Active 384 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $252,990 Active 383 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $252,990 Active 382 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $252,990 Active 379 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $252,990 Active 378 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $252,990 Active 377 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 376 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 375 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 374 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 373 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,990 Active 372 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 371 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 369 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 368 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 367 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $262,990 Active 366 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 365 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 364 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $262,990 Active 363 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 362 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $262,990 Active 361 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 360 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $262,990 Active 359 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $262,990 Active 358 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 356 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 353 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 350 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    price $262,990 Active 349 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $260,990 Active 349 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $260,990 Active 348 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $260,990 Active 347 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $260,990 Active 345 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $260,990 Active 341 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $260,990 Active 340 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $260,990 Active 339 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $260,990 Active 336 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,990 Active 335 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,990 Active 334 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,416
• − Property taxes: −$4,664
• − Insurance: −$1,555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,300
• − Management: −$2,300
• − Depreciation: −$9,045
• Taxable loss: −$8,531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New paint in interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-03 Listed $260,990 Zillow