435 W Deberry Ave · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$52,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1958 3,500 sqft lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Utilities available
• Home design: 2-story home; Shingle siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Built with shingle siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.08 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $52k).
• Cap rate 63.1% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 63.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 202.81%
• DSCR: 10.02
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,992
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
936 S Houston St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-4%)	1mo	$229,900	$173	74
1179 Houston S	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (+0%)	9mo	$235,000	$168	74
109 Misty	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,339 (-4%)	4mo	$210,000	$157	64
243 E Magnolia Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,325 (-5%)	2mo	$249,000	$188	64
1500 Kenwood Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,459 (+5%)	4mo	$240,000	$164	57
630 S Lamont	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,269 (-9%)	1mo	$229,000	$180	56
762 S Bay	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+1%)	1mo	$550,000	$390	56
119 Misty Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (-9%)	4mo	$249,500	$197	54
101 Saunders Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,206 (-13%)	9mo	$220,000	$182	54
108 Spoonbill Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,185 (-15%)	11mo	$209,000	$176	47
504 S 9th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-12%)	11mo	$140,000	$114	30
608 S 10th St	0.71mi	4/1.0	1,584 (+14%)	11mo	$99,000	$63	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.90×
• Total profit: $144,195
• Equity at exit: $7,753

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 23.15×
• Total profit: $322,449
• Equity at exit: $4,496

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,457/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$765
• Net cashflow: $2,394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $610

Max offer price $52,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,424	-5% $2,409	+0% $2,394	+5% $2,380	+10% $2,365
Rent	-10% $2,107	-5% $2,250	+0% $2,394	+5% $2,538	+10% $2,682
Rate	-1.0pp $2,420	-0.5pp $2,407	base $2,394	+0.5pp $2,381	+1.0pp $2,367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	44d	1	0.35mi
2255 McMullen Ln Aransas Pass, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$1,639	$1.04	14d	9	1.44mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $52,000 Active
3. 2026-04-22
   price $52,000
4. 2026-02-24
   price $59,900
5. 2026-02-24
   price $59,900
6. 2026-01-25
   price $62,000
7. 2026-01-24
   price $62,000
8. 2026-01-16
   price $65,000
9. 2026-01-16
   price $65,000
10. 2025-12-23
    price $69,900
11. 2025-12-22
    price $69,900
12. 2025-11-17
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,457 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,693
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$1,457
• − Insurance: −$1,058
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,495
• − Management: −$3,495
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable income: $29,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,143
• After-tax cash flow: $21,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — CBMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $52,000 CBMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $52,000 CBMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $59,900 RAAR
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $59,900 CBMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $62,000 RAAR
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $62,000 CBMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $65,000 RAAR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $65,000 CBMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $69,900 RAAR
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $69,900 CBMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $75,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,457 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.