2902 Cactus Dr · Big Spring, TX 79720

$197,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1970 9,540 sqft lot $113/sqft · 24% below area Est $260k · 24% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3 bedroom home with possible 4th bedroom or flex space! Enjoy a Texas-size backyard perfect for entertaining, pets, or future additions. Seller is installing a brand new roof prior to closing and offering $9,600 in buyer concessions to help complete repairs or updates! Plus, a large collection of supplies and improvement items will convey, including light fixtures, sink, faucet, range hood, blinds, security system, and more (as shown in photos). So much value and opportunity in one property!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Security system
• Texas-size backyard

Tags

• TEXAS-SIZE BACKYARD
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• SECURITY SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Brick veneer; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#948 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Big Spring ISD (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #641 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Big Spring J H (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 516 students, 70% FRL); Big Spring H S (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,084 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 266 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 69 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howard County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,702 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.47%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,783
• List price: $197,000
• Delta: -19.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-50,826
• Equity at exit: $29,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,473
• Equity at exit: $17,033

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79720

• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,432/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $144,442

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-242	+0% $-298	+5% $-353	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-408	-5% $-353	+0% $-298	+5% $-242	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-247	base $-298	+0.5pp $-349	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3304 West St Big Spring, TX	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,119	$0.74	3d	1	0.40mi
801 W Marcy Dr Big Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1276	$1,166	$0.91	13d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $197,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $197,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $197,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on marketlisting id $197,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-03-28
    price $210,000 505-char remark
17. 2026-03-03
    listed $220,000 Active 505-char remark
18. 2021-10-19
    soldstatus
19. 2021-08-26
    soldstatus
20. 2004-11-19
    soldstatus
21. 1994-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,432 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$3,432
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$7,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,704
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810200
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,916
• Composite: 25.11/100
• National rank: #7529
• State rank: #641 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Spring

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #948
• US rank: #16886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Spring, TX
• County: Howard County · 29,936 people
• City population: 29,936
• Metro: Big Spring, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,936
• Household income: $68,785
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 638.0

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,396 people
• By 2030: 46,792 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 54,096 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 61,707 · +42.2%
• By 2075: 79,809 · +83.9%
• By 2100: 87,385 · +101.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 45% Two or more races 17% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+58.2 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.13%
• Current HPI: 140.8159
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Big Spring, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $197,000 PBBOR
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $210,000 PBBOR
• 2021-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,432 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.