Burlington Plan · Truesdale, MO 63380

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily · 777 Days on market

↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 777 days

🏗️ New construction. The $254,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $315,984.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-901 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#785 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County R-III (town): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #172 of 324 in MO (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black Hawk Middle (math 25% / reading 43%, grade F, #255 of 391 statewide, top 66%, 698 students, 43% FRL); Warrenton High (math 28% / reading 57%, grade F, #216 of 521 statewide, top 41%, 997 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 424 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (126 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 777 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $162,362 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 777 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.22%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,984
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -19.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
342 Cumberland Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-2%)	6mo	$319,900	$208	90
198 Cynthia Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+1%)	4mo	$331,900	$210	88
388 Cumberland Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-4%)	8mo	$325,900	$218	79
405 Sandra Dr	0.22mi	3/3.0	1,610 (+3%)	4mo	$335,000	$208	78
726 Courtshire Xing	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,719 (+10%)	1mo	$299,900	$174	76
547 Austin Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+0%)	2mo	$325,000	$207	73
701 Courtshire Xing	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+10%)	8mo	$319,668	$186	72
722 Courtshire Xing	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-10%)	4mo	$277,435	$197	72
531 Austin Dr	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,565 (-0%)	8mo	$325,000	$208	69
858 Woodbridge Way	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,728 (+10%)	8mo	$340,589	$197	68
706 Courtshire Xing	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,345 (-14%)	2mo	$282,500	$210	67
857 Woodbridge Way	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-10%)	7mo	$259,900	$185	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-29,537
• Equity at exit: $131,187

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-11,577
• Equity at exit: $194,082

Cash invested: $88,476 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63380

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,657
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$395 /mo · $4,740/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-901

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,764

Max offer price $185,603

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-683	-5% $-792	+0% $-901	+5% $-1,010	+10% $-1,119
Rent	-10% $-1,029	-5% $-965	+0% $-901	+5% $-837	+10% $-773
Rate	-1.0pp $-742	-0.5pp $-821	base $-901	+0.5pp $-983	+1.0pp $-1,066

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,996
• Closing costs: $9,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16901 Cattail Bottoms Dr Warrenton, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1232	$1,795	$1.46	0d	7	1.07mi
1060 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,495	$1.30	0d	1	1.50mi
1056 Arlington Way Warrenton, MO	2.0	2.5	1152	$1,495	$1.30	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $254,900 Active 777 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,900 Active 776 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 773 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 772 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 771 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 770 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 768 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 764 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,900 Active 763 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,900 Active 762 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,900 Active 758 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,900 Active 757 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,900 Active 756 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 755 DOM
15. 2026-04-01
    price $254,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

16. 2026-03-01
    price $252,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

17. 2026-01-16
    status Active 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

18. 2026-01-16
    price $249,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

19. 2025-10-31
    historical 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

20. 2025-09-01
    price $246,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

21. 2025-06-04
    price $244,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

22. 2025-01-02
    price $259,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

23. 2024-09-15
    price $254,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

24. 2024-07-02
    price $249,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

25. 2024-05-15
    price $261,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

26. 2024-04-05
    price $259,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

27. 2024-03-24
    price $269,900 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

28. 2024-02-19
    listed $259,900 Active 674-char remark

    Show marketing remark (674 chars)

    This stunning two story home features 2 or 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, plus an optional powder room on the main floor. You'll love the open floorplan with the spacious living room that flows to the kitchen and breakfast area. There's plenty of cabinetry, plus you can personalize with a breakfast bar for additional seating. Upstairs you'll find the master suite with a large walk in closet, secondary closet, and private bathroom, plus a second bedroom, loft and additional full bath. The Burlington includes 2 car garage, soffits & fascia and much more! Additional choices include 3 bedroom plan, 2nd floor laundry, luxury master bath, powder room, and bay windows.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,483
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,700
• − Property taxes: −$4,740
• − Insurance: −$1,580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$9,192
• Taxable loss: −$16,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,043
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County R-III
• NCES district ID: 2931050
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,644
• Composite: 32.55/100
• National rank: #5690
• State rank: #172 of 324 in MO

Livability — Truesdale

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #23955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truesdale, MO
• City population: 980
• Population (ZIP): 980

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,105 people
• By 2030: 35,605 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 36,047 · +2.7%
• By 2050: 35,479 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 33,325 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 28,282 · -19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Estonian 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.7% · R 74.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.6pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+26.8 2008: R+12.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.38%
• Current HPI: 126.7291
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $254,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $252,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-31 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $246,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $244,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $259,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-15 Price Changed $254,900 Zillow
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $261,900 Zillow
• 2024-04-05 Price Changed $259,900 Zillow
• 2024-03-24 Price Changed $269,900 Zillow
• 2024-02-19 Listed $259,900 Zillow