1603 Ellington Dr · Dundee, FL 33838

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,563 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2017 6,325 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. "SOLAR PANELS FULLY PAID OFF" 1603 Ellington Drive in Dundee, Florida, a three-bedroom, two-bathroom home built in 2017 and situated on a 6,316-square-foot lot in the established Ridge of Dundee community. This 1,563-square-foot residence represents the type of well-built single-family home that appeals to owner-occupants and investors seeking substantial square footage with strong equity positioning and minimal systems risk. The property has been owner-occupied since construction and reflects the care of homeowners who have maintained systems proactively and invested in meaningful upgrades. The defining mechanical upgrade is the brand-new Carrier central air sys

Key facts

• 6,325 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2017

Tags

• CARRIER CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM
• STABLE SLAB FOUNDATION
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR SPACE
• DIRECT REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Homestead exempt; Solar (green energy generation)
• HOA & community: HOA required (Amelia Kirkland) — $400 annually ($33.33/month); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a single-story home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Rain gutters

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($557/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,800 (10.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $125,463
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $367,187
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,806/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,949

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,049	$1.21	3d	1	0.32mi
1709 Hill Top Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,160	$1.04	3d	1	0.34mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,250	$1.09	23d	1	0.40mi
1207 Coda Ct Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	2040	$1,795	$0.88	14d	1	0.45mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,850	$1.32	3d	1	0.48mi
403 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1630	$1,950	$1.20	23d	1	0.69mi
391 Sol Vista Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	0.69mi
228 Hillcrest Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,075	$1.08	19d	1	0.72mi
217 Betty Ave S Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,650	$1.43	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $224,900 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $224,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $224,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $224,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $224,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $224,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $224,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-21
    price $234,900
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $239,900 Active
13. 2017-05-23
    soldstatus $2,444,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$2,806
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$774
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• City population: 5,431
• Population (ZIP): 5,431

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-90.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $2,444,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+28.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,806 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.