307 Lexington Cir · Newport Beach, CA 92660

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 169 Days on market

Built 1963 $415/sqft · 48% below area Est $570k · 48% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordability is hard to find in Newport Beach. .. except at 307 Lexington Circle in Bayside Village. Newport Beach waterfront lifestyle at an exceptional value. This charming, cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a rare opportunity to enjoy coastal living at a more attainable price—perfect for renovation, or building a new custom home up to approximately 900 sq ft. The bright, open-concept layout features two skylights and two large sliding glass doors, filling the home with natural light and creating an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for efficient, relaxed everyday living and entertaining. Wrap-around covered porch provides shade and privacy, while the yard offers flexibility to fit your vision. Keep the grandfathered, electric powered, 120 sq. ft. shed for a workshop, office, or gym, or remove it to create a larger, more open yard. With no neighbors directly in front or behind, the home enjoys an uncommon sense of privacy. The current below market land lease secured through 2026, no HOA dues, and no property taxes adds to the overall affordability, making this an excellent entry point into Newport Beach. Bayside Village’s location next to a planned upscale mixed-use development further enhances long-term investment potential. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including pools, spas, clubhouses, private beach access, kayak and paddleboard launch, and scenic walking paths. Conveniently located near Newport Dunes Waterfront Resort & Marina, Balboa Island, and Fashion Island, with easy access to dining, shopping, and the coast. An ideal opportunity for full-time living or a beach retreat, offering privacy, flexibility, and affordability in one of Newport Beach’s most desirable waterfront communities.

Key facts

• Dog parks
• Private beach access
• Parking

Tags

• BAYSIDE VILLAGE COMMUNITY
• WRAP-AROUND COVERED PORCH
• LARGE POWERED STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• KAYAK AND PADDLEBOARD LAUNCH
• DOG PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $879 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 0.6% in Newport Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#101 in CA, #3,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, commute A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Abraham Lincoln Elementary (math 67%, 306 students, 32% FRL); Corona Del Mar High (math 55% / reading 63%, grade C+, #221 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 2,059 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.60%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $570,000
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -47.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $223,101
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $622,015
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92660

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,086	-5% $982	+0% $879	+5% $776	+10% $672
Rent	-10% $585	-5% $732	+0% $879	+5% $1,026	+10% $1,174
Rate	-1.0pp $1,030	-0.5pp $955	base $879	+0.5pp $802	+1.0pp $723

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Garnet Ave Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	589	$4,195	$7.12	45d	1	0.53mi
122 Opal Ave Unit 2 Newport Beach, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$4,750	$6.79	20d	1	0.72mi
305 Marine Ave Newport Beach, CA	2.0	1.0	625	$4,000	$6.40	45d	1	0.79mi
1510 Abalone Pl Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$3,500	$4.67	45d	1	0.84mi
117 Apolena Ave Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$2,950	$5.90	45d	1	0.84mi
117 Amethyst Ave Unit 1/2 Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	490	$3,750	$7.65	26d	1	0.86mi
880 Irvine Ave Newport Beach, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$3,153	$4.48	0d	89	0.97mi
1312 W Balboa Blvd Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$2,675	$4.46	4d	1	1.27mi
1 Park Newport Newport Beach, CA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$4,276	$4.22	0d	117	1.27mi
1338 W Balboa Blvd Unit 4 Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	615	$2,595	$4.22	45d	1	1.29mi
1530 Miramar Dr Unit 5 Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$2,995	$4.54	45d	1	1.34mi
1530 Miramar Dr Unit 5 Newport Beach, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$2,850	$4.32	16d	1	1.34mi
393 Broadway Costa Mesa, CA	1.0	1.0	590	$2,995	$5.08	26d	1	1.41mi
313 W 17th St Costa Mesa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$4,225	$5.63	7d	7	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    price $299,000 1804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1804 chars)

    Affordability is hard to find in Newport Beach. .. except at 307 Lexington Circle in Bayside Village. Newport Beach waterfront lifestyle at an exceptional value. This charming, cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a rare opportunity to enjoy coastal living at a more attainable price—perfect for renovation, or building a new custom home up to approximately 900 sq ft. The bright, open-concept layout features two skylights and two large sliding glass doors, filling the home with natural light and creating an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for efficient, relaxed everyday living and entertaining. Wrap-around covered porch provides shade and privacy, while the yard offers flexibility to fit your vision. Keep the grandfathered, electric powered, 120 sq. ft. shed for a workshop, office, or gym, or remove it to create a larger, more open yard. With no neighbors directly in front or behind, the home enjoys an uncommon sense of privacy. The current below market land lease secured through 2026, no HOA dues, and no property taxes adds to the overall affordability, making this an excellent entry point into Newport Beach. Bayside Village’s location next to a planned upscale mixed-use development further enhances long-term investment potential. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including pools, spas, clubhouses, private beach access, kayak and paddleboard launch, and scenic walking paths. Conveniently located near Newport Dunes Waterfront Resort & Marina, Balboa Island, and Fashion Island, with easy access to dining, shopping, and the coast. An ideal opportunity for full-time living or a beach retreat, offering privacy, flexibility, and affordability in one of Newport Beach’s most desirable waterfront communities.

17. 2026-03-04
    status Active 1804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1804 chars)

    Affordability is hard to find in Newport Beach. .. except at 307 Lexington Circle in Bayside Village. Newport Beach waterfront lifestyle at an exceptional value. This charming, cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a rare opportunity to enjoy coastal living at a more attainable price—perfect for renovation, or building a new custom home up to approximately 900 sq ft. The bright, open-concept layout features two skylights and two large sliding glass doors, filling the home with natural light and creating an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for efficient, relaxed everyday living and entertaining. Wrap-around covered porch provides shade and privacy, while the yard offers flexibility to fit your vision. Keep the grandfathered, electric powered, 120 sq. ft. shed for a workshop, office, or gym, or remove it to create a larger, more open yard. With no neighbors directly in front or behind, the home enjoys an uncommon sense of privacy. The current below market land lease secured through 2026, no HOA dues, and no property taxes adds to the overall affordability, making this an excellent entry point into Newport Beach. Bayside Village’s location next to a planned upscale mixed-use development further enhances long-term investment potential. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including pools, spas, clubhouses, private beach access, kayak and paddleboard launch, and scenic walking paths. Conveniently located near Newport Dunes Waterfront Resort & Marina, Balboa Island, and Fashion Island, with easy access to dining, shopping, and the coast. An ideal opportunity for full-time living or a beach retreat, offering privacy, flexibility, and affordability in one of Newport Beach’s most desirable waterfront communities.

18. 2025-12-26
    listed $325,000 Active 1804-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1804 chars)

    Affordability is hard to find in Newport Beach. .. except at 307 Lexington Circle in Bayside Village. Newport Beach waterfront lifestyle at an exceptional value. This charming, cozy 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers a rare opportunity to enjoy coastal living at a more attainable price—perfect for renovation, or building a new custom home up to approximately 900 sq ft. The bright, open-concept layout features two skylights and two large sliding glass doors, filling the home with natural light and creating an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—ideal for efficient, relaxed everyday living and entertaining. Wrap-around covered porch provides shade and privacy, while the yard offers flexibility to fit your vision. Keep the grandfathered, electric powered, 120 sq. ft. shed for a workshop, office, or gym, or remove it to create a larger, more open yard. With no neighbors directly in front or behind, the home enjoys an uncommon sense of privacy. The current below market land lease secured through 2026, no HOA dues, and no property taxes adds to the overall affordability, making this an excellent entry point into Newport Beach. Bayside Village’s location next to a planned upscale mixed-use development further enhances long-term investment potential. Residents enjoy resort-style amenities including pools, spas, clubhouses, private beach access, kayak and paddleboard launch, and scenic walking paths. Conveniently located near Newport Dunes Waterfront Resort & Marina, Balboa Island, and Fashion Island, with easy access to dining, shopping, and the coast. An ideal opportunity for full-time living or a beach retreat, offering privacy, flexibility, and affordability in one of Newport Beach’s most desirable waterfront communities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,579
• − Management: −$3,579
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $6,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $9,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport-Mesa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0627240
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,922
• Composite: 47.64/100
• National rank: #2248
• State rank: #106 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newport Beach

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #3645

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newport Beach, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 83,845
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,890
• Household income: $159,564
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2633.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.65%
• Current HPI: 537.8751
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.11%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $299,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $325,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-33.0%/yr

Latest (2010): $17 · -56.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.