4695 Bell Ridge Cv · Olive Branch, MS 38654

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1997 0.48 ac lot $180/sqft · 19% above area Est $318k · at est. $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4BR/2BA split-plan, New Corian Countertop, New Oven/Range, Dishwasher, 4th BR w/sitting rm or gameroom. MBR has luxury salon bath w/5' w'jacuzzi tub & sep. shower. Breakfast bar w/kit. Hardwood entry, Above Ground Pool w/Decking, Gutters, Well Maintained Home. Tastefully decorated, easy to show, on huge treed lot end of cove.

Key facts

• Cove lot
• Half-acre
• Oversized bonus room

Tags

• COVE LOT
• HALF-ACRE
• OVERSIZED BONUS ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• HUGE BACKYARD OASIS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $120 covering grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detectors; Deadbolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One and one-half stories; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Patio; Landscaping lights; Rain gutters; Storage structure; Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Microwave
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Pantry; Double vanity; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Olive Branch — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#29 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Olive Branch Elem (503 students, 99% FRL); Olive Branch Middle (math 48% / reading 32%, grade F, #68 of 179 statewide, top 38%, 726 students, 100% FRL); Olive Branch High School (math 54% / reading 48%, grade D+, #17 of 197 statewide, top 9%, 1,117 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,102 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.79%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,064
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -0.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8786 Bell Ridge Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-0%)	7mo	$299,900	$172	89
8853 Bell Ridge Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,785 (+2%)	6mo	$299,900	$168	87
4671 Bell Wood Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+6%)	4mo	$279,900	$151	84
8619 Bell Brook Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-3%)	8mo	$292,000	$172	76
8830 Bell Forest Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,881 (+7%)	18mo	$274,900	$146	69
8918 Bell Forrest Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+14%)	3mo	$309,900	$154	69
8800 Oak Grove Blvd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,999 (+14%)	4mo	$294,000	$147	65
8719 Bell Ridge Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,951 (+11%)	14mo	$295,000	$151	60
4283 W Olivia Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,010 (+15%)	3mo	$362,000	$180	55
8860 Bell Ridge Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (+14%)	21mo	$279,900	$140	50
4732 Patton Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,932 (+10%)	22mo	$324,900	$168	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-70,684
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-103,831
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38654

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,903/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $278,787

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-116	+0% $-205	+5% $-294	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-380	-5% $-292	+0% $-205	+5% $-118	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-125	base $-205	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8911 Oak Grove Blvd Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1856	$2,090	$1.13	45d	1	0.13mi
5837 Stonewall Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1686	$1,935	$1.15	4d	1	1.32mi
5759 Michaelson Dr Olive Branch, MS	4.0	2.5	2340	$2,240	$0.96	3d	1	1.34mi
5822 Michaelson Dr Olive Branch, MS	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,855	$0.98	12d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $315,000 Active 838-char remark
2. 2007-08-14
   soldstatus
3. 2007-08-07
   soldstatus 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (331 chars)

   4BR/2BA split-plan, New Corian Countertop, New Oven/Range, Dishwasher, 4th BR w/sitting rm or gameroom. MBR has luxury salon bath w/5' w'jacuzzi tub & sep. shower. Breakfast bar w/kit. Hardwood entry, Above Ground Pool w/Decking, Gutters, Well Maintained Home. Tastefully decorated, easy to show, on huge treed lot end of cove.

4. 2007-08-06
   soldstatus $181,000

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   4BR/2BA split-plan, huge treed lot end of cove. 4th BR w/ sittingrm or game rm, MBR luxury salon bath w/ 5' w'jacuzzi tub & sep. shower. Breakfast bar/ kit. Hardwood entry, above groud pool! Well Maintained

5. 2007-07-23
   historical

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   4BR/2BA split-plan, huge treed lot end of cove. 4th BR w/ sittingrm or game rm, MBR luxury salon bath w/ 5' w'jacuzzi tub & sep. shower. Breakfast bar/ kit. Hardwood entry, above groud pool! Well Maintained

6. 2007-06-13
   listed $189,900 331-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   4BR/2BA split-plan, huge treed lot end of cove. 4th BR w/ sittingrm or game rm, MBR luxury salon bath w/ 5' w'jacuzzi tub & sep. shower. Breakfast bar/ kit. Hardwood entry, above groud pool! Well Maintained

7. 2007-06-13
   listed $189,900

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   4BR/2BA split-plan, huge treed lot end of cove. 4th BR w/ sittingrm or game rm, MBR luxury salon bath w/ 5' w'jacuzzi tub & sep. shower. Breakfast bar/ kit. Hardwood entry, above groud pool! Well Maintained

8. 2000-06-02
   soldstatus
9. 2000-03-01
   listed $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,903 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$586/yr (+$49/mo · 30.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,903
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$8,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,949
• After-tax cash flow: $-511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Olive Branch

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #6509

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olive Branch, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 57,898
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 57,898
• Household income: $103,092
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.27%
• Current HPI: 187.2114
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+117.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-08 Listed $315,000 MLSU
• 2007-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-07 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-08-06 Sold (MLS) — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2007-07-23 Delisted — Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2007-06-13 Listed $189,900 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2007-06-13 Listed $189,900 MLSU
• 2000-06-02 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2000-03-01 Listed $145,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,903 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.