289 Mineral Springs Rd · Bracey, VA 23970

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1950 21 ac lot Est $188k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits with this 20+/- acre property offering endless possibilities! Whether you're dreaming of building your forever home, creating your own farm retreat, or establishing a family compound, this property provides the space and potential to make it happen. Featuring three existing homes on the property, you can choose to renovate and restore them to their former charm or start fresh with new construction. Enjoy the privacy, room to roam, and peaceful country setting while still having the flexibility to design the lifestyle you've always wanted. Conveniently located just minutes from Buggs Island Lake and near South Hill and Boydton, you'll enjoy nearby shopping, dining, and rec

Key facts

• 20 acre property
• Three existing homes
• 20.73 acre lot

Tags

• 20 ACRE PROPERTY
• THREE EXISTING HOMES
• NEAR BUGGS ISLAND LAKE
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 1
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 58
• EASY ACCESS TO INTERSTATE 85

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Described as Residential/Vacation; Single-story
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Has a view; Road surface listed as other; Approximately 20.73 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (features listed as other); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-69/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,610 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,484
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
289 Mineral Springs Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,356 (0%)	0mo	$189,000	$139	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-27,082
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,967
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23970

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $164,167

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$688
• After-tax cash flow: $619/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mecklenburg County · 8,109 people
• City population: 2,096
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 8,109
• Household income: $65,170
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 129.0

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 37% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.95%
• Current HPI: 190.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-05-16 Listed $165,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $319 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.