GARDNER Plan · Bonaire, GA 31005

$291,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,180 sqft · SingleFamily · 542 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to our Gardner plan. This spacious two-story home features an open-concept main floor that seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas. The kitchen boasts stylish white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances. A versatile flex space a private bedroom and full bath on the first floor provide comfort and privacy. Upstairs, you'll find four more spacious bedrooms, including a luxurious owner's suite with an ensuite bath featuring dual sinks and a large walk-in closet. Every bedroom in the Gardner also includes its own walk-in closet, offering plenty of personal storage.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 541 days

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $298,247.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-156/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.3% in Bonaire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bonaire Elementary School (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #99 of 1,228 statewide, top 8%, 529 students, 33% FRL); Bonaire Middle School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade A-, #21 of 470 statewide, top 4%, 1,140 students, 32% FRL); Veterans High School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 424 statewide, top 25%, 1,914 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 405 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 542 days — a 12% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $256,951 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 542 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,247
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -2.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Cannon Point Dr	0.36mi	5/3.0	2,180 (0%)	6mo	$277,888	$127	78
519 Liberty Hall Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,075 (-5%)	4mo	$386,500	$186	66
111 Sassy Fox Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,093 (-4%)	0mo	$355,000	$170	61
611 Jeffery Thomas Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,146 (-2%)	4mo	$350,000	$163	60
414 Cannon Point Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,023 (-7%)	6mo	$279,888	$138	60
817 Brittany Nichole Ct Lot 137	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,286 (+5%)	5mo	$362,511	$159	59
526 Foster Sydney Ct Lot 42	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,286 (+5%)	1mo	$359,417	$157	58
817 Brittany Nichole Lot 137 Ct Lot 137	0.47mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,286 (+5%)	5mo	$362,511	$159	55
101 Saddlefield Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,236 (+3%)	5mo	$310,000	$139	53
507 Foster Sydney Ct	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,297 (+5%)	6mo	$380,000	$165	52
644 Trails End Cir	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,989 (-9%)	4mo	$335,000	$168	50
309 Jasmine Way	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,417 (+11%)	4mo	$420,000	$174	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,065
• Equity at exit: $44,470

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-22,995
• Equity at exit: $25,787

Cash invested: $83,509 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $354,623 ($144/sqft)
• Median days on market: 157 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31005

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 405
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,564
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$373 /mo · $4,474/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $296,367

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $90	+0% $-13	+5% $-116	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-115	+0% $-13	+5% $89	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $63	base $-13	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,562
• Closing costs: $8,947
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Cannon Point Dr Bonaire, GA	5.0	3.0	2180	$2,400	$1.10	0d	1	0.27mi
805 Harley Farms Dr Bonaire, GA	5.0	3.0	2440	$2,550	$1.05	184d	1	0.92mi
805 Harley Farms Dr Bonaire, GA	5.0	3.0	2440	$2,550	$1.05	162d	1	0.92mi
232 Lydia Dr Bonaire, GA	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,200	$1.08	1d	1	1.16mi
232 Lydia Dr Bonaire, GA	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,200	$1.08	0d	1	1.16mi
2102 Hiwassee Dr Bonaire, GA	5.0	3.0	2842	$3,000	$1.06	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $291,990 Active 542 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $291,990 Active 541 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $291,990 Active 540 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $291,990 Active 539 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $291,990 Active 538 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $291,990 Active 536 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $291,990 Active 535 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $291,990 Active 534 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $291,990 Active 533 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $291,990 Active 532 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $291,990 Active 531 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $291,990 Active 530 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $291,990 Active 529 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $291,990 Active 528 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $291,990 Active 527 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $291,990 Active 526 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $291,990 Active 525 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $291,990 Active 524 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $291,990 Active 523 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $291,990 Active 522 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $291,990 Active 521 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $291,990 Active 520 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $291,990 Active 519 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $291,990 Active 518 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $291,990 Active 517 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $291,990 Active 516 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $291,990 Active 515 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $291,990 Active 514 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $291,990 Active 513 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $291,990 Active 512 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $291,990 Active 511 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $291,990 Active 510 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $291,990 Active 509 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $291,990 Active 508 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $291,990 Active 507 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $291,990 Active 506 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $291,990 Active 505 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $291,990 Active 504 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $291,990 Active 503 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $291,990 Active 502 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $291,990 Active 501 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $291,990 Active 500 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $291,990 Active 499 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $291,990 Active 498 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $291,990 Active 497 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $291,990 Active 496 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $291,990 Active 495 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $291,990 Active 494 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $291,990 Active 493 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $291,990 Active 492 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,706
• − Property taxes: −$4,474
• − Insurance: −$1,491
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − Depreciation: −$8,676
• Taxable loss: −$5,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates to the exterior and landscaping to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves curb appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bonaire Primary School Middle Bonaire Middle School A- GA #21/470 Nat'l #1,003/14,009 High Veterans High School F GA #104/424 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bonaire

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 169,502 people
• City population: 22,063
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,063
• Household income: $110,461
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 23% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Salvadoran 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.85%
• Current HPI: 213.0605
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-15 Listed $299,990 Zillow