19 Old Forge Rd · Westbrook, CT 06498

$197,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Manufactured public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1969 $223/sqft · 7% above area Est $185k · 7% over $640/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of the Best/Private Locations in this well-kept New England Village Community. Very nice 2-bedroom house, 1 Bath, Sunroom, Eat-in Kitchen/Dining area, Living room, Roof 12 years old, Heat pump 2012, Water heater 2011 and Vinyl siding 2012. Kitchen, baths, floors in excellent shape. Central A/C 11 yrs old & a spacious private yard / with storage shed. Note: property bordered by private road on 2 sides and an adjacent lot on 3rd side which is part of Village Community ownership and cannot be built on, which makes this a very-very private residence. Allowed 1 Small pet.

Key facts

• Vinyl siding 2012
• Water heater 2011
• Roof 12 years old

Tags

• SUNROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• ROOF 12 YEARS OLD
• HEAT PUMP 2012
• WATER HEATER 2011
• VINYL SIDING 2012

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $861 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $198k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Westbrook School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #49 of 153 in CT (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $198k implies a 204% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,089 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.64%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,774
• List price: $197,900
• Delta: 7.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $23,145
• Equity at exit: $29,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $92,312
• Equity at exit: $17,111

Cash invested: $55,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06498

• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,726/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$640
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $861

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,410

Max offer price $197,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,475
• Closing costs: $5,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Thompson Ln Old Saybrook, CT	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	44d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $640 · $7,680/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,900 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $197,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,900 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $197,900 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $197,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $217,000 Active 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    One of the Best/Private Locations in this well-kept New England Village Community. Very nice 2-bedroom house, 1 Bath, Sunroom, Eat-in Kitchen/Dining area, Living room, Roof 12 years old, Heat pump 2012, Water heater 2011 and Vinyl siding 2012. Kitchen, baths, floors in excellent shape. Central A/C 11 yrs old & a spacious private yard / with storage shed. Note: property bordered by private road on 2 sides and an adjacent lot on 3rd side which is part of Village Community ownership and cannot be built on, which makes this a very-very private residence. Allowed 1 Small pet.

17. 2015-08-13
    soldstatus $65,000 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Completely rebuilt!! 55+ Jensen's New England Village Community. Spectacular 2 bedrm house w/new shed, roof, heat pump 2012, water heater 2011. New vinyl siding 2014. New kitchen, baths, floors! Central A/C & a fabulous yard. 1 Small pet ok. Land lease $425. Per month. Inspected!

18. 2015-07-10
    historical 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Completely rebuilt!! 55+ Jensen's New England Village Community. Spectacular 2 bedrm house w/new shed, roof, heat pump 2012, water heater 2011. New vinyl siding 2014. New kitchen, baths, floors! Central A/C & a fabulous yard. 1 Small pet ok. Land lease $425. Per month. Inspected!

19. 2014-08-06
    listed $69,000 284-char remark

    Show marketing remark (284 chars)

    Completely rebuilt!! 55+ Jensen's New England Village Community. Spectacular 2 bedrm house w/new shed, roof, heat pump 2012, water heater 2011. New vinyl siding 2014. New kitchen, baths, floors! Central A/C & a fabulous yard. 1 Small pet ok. Land lease $425. Per month. Inspected!

20. 2011-09-26
    soldstatus $25,000
21. 2010-12-06
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,726 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,981 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,255/yr (+$105/mo · 72.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,726
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − HOA: −$7,680
• − Depreciation: −$5,757
• Taxable income: $8,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $8,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westbrook School District
• NCES district ID: 0904980
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $68,591
• Composite: 52.78/100
• National rank: #1540
• State rank: #49 of 153 in CT

Livability — Westbrook

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westbrook Center, CT
• Population (ZIP): 6,832

Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 188,651

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 200.2559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+383.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $217,000 Smart MLS
• 2015-08-13 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Smart MLS
• 2015-07-10 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2014-08-06 Listed $69,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-09-26 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Smart MLS
• 2010-12-06 Listed $44,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,726 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.