10167 NE Waterford Rd NE · Covington, GA 30014

$229,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1982 0.31 ac lot $171/sqft · at area comps Est $226k · at est. ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

Key facts

• Stone front
• New a/c unit
• Small kitchen island

Tags

• 4-SIDED BRICK
• STONE FRONT
• NEW A/C UNIT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW LAMINATED FLOORING
• SMALL KITCHEN ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 486 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.88%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,740
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: 1.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10109 Broken Branch Ct NE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-3%)	20mo	$237,000	$182	69
10157 Waterford Rd NE	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,225 (-9%)	23mo	$225,000	$184	63
9129 Bent Pine Ct NE	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,145 (-15%)	4mo	$166,500	$145	61
10100 Broken Branch Ct NE	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-15%)	10mo	$245,000	$214	56
10630 Highway 278	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,376 (+2%)	4mo	$239,000	$174	56
10129 Straphinge Trl NE	0.07mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,525 (+14%)	23mo	$224,900	$147	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-16,176
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,286
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,966/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $553	-5% $488	+0% $423	+5% $358	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $329	+0% $423	+5% $517	+10% $612
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $481	base $423	+0.5pp $363	+1.0pp $303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9300 Delk Dr Covington, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,580	$2.46	0d	17	0.81mi
12250 Town Center Blvd Covington, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1843	$2,129	$1.15	0d	11	1.23mi
10500 Callaway Dr Covington, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,627	$2.68	0d	66	1.24mi
12607 Persky PL Covington, GA	3.0	2.5–3.5	1668	$1,888	$1.13	0d	10	1.28mi
12301 Town Ctr Blvd Covington, GA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1282	$2,878	$2.24	0d	20	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $229,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 New 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 New 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 New 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 New 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 New 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 New 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 New 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $229,900 New 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    price $229,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

14. 2026-04-16
    price $239,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

15. 2026-03-28
    price $249,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

16. 2026-03-14
    price $259,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

17. 2026-01-05
    price $269,900 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

18. 2025-11-14
    listed $275,000 New 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

19. 2025-11-03
    historical $275,000 525-char remark

    Show marketing remark (525 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER DROPS ANOTHER 10,000 For QUICK SALE!!!! COME GET THIS AFFORDABLE HOME BEFORE IT'S GONE!!!! Freshly remodeled affordable home. Must see!!!!!! 4-sided brick, stone front, New A/C Unit. New Roof. New Laminated Flooring. Small kitchen island. Built-in electric fireplace. Recess lighting in the open space. This house is totally remodeled and move in ready. Close to all shopping (Walmart, IHOP, Town Center, Tractor Supply, etc.) Close to Interstate: I-20. Great affordable start up home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,966 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$12/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,966
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,294
• − Management: −$2,294
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $1,411
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$339
• After-tax cash flow: $4,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #19602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 104,393
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $229,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $259,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $269,900 GAMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-03 Coming Soon $275,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,966 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.