21726 Cassel Rd · Cassel, CA 96016

$100,000

2 bd · None ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great chance to have a piece of property close to fishing in Cassel , walk to the hat creek enjoy the great outdoors. This is an older mobile with a nice garage on . 46 acre just under 1/2 acres , plenty of room for your fishing gear. Big oak trees for summer shade.

Key facts

• Hat creek
• Nice garage
• Summer shade

Tags

• HAT CREEK
• NICE GARAGE
• BIG OAK TREES
• SUMMER SHADE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#1,241 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fall River Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #335 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.18%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $14,596
• Equity at exit: $36,353

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $47,725
• Equity at exit: $50,071

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96016

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This is a great chance to have a piece of property close to fishing in Cassel , walk to the hat creek enjoy the great outdoors. This is an older mobile with a nice garage on . 46 acre just under 1/2 acres , plenty of room for your fishing gear. Big oak trees for summer shade.

2. 2026-04-12
   listed $100,000 Active 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This is a great chance to have a piece of property close to fishing in Cassel , walk to the hat creek enjoy the great outdoors. This is an older mobile with a nice garage on . 46 acre just under 1/2 acres , plenty of room for your fishing gear. Big oak trees for summer shade.

3. 2026-03-27
   price $100,000 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This is a great chance to have a piece of property close to fishing in Cassel , walk to the hat creek enjoy the great outdoors. This is an older mobile with a nice garage on . 46 acre just under 1/2 acres , plenty of room for your fishing gear. Big oak trees for summer shade.

4. 2025-10-10
   listed $150,000 Active 278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (278 chars)

   This is a great chance to have a piece of property close to fishing in Cassel , walk to the hat creek enjoy the great outdoors. This is an older mobile with a nice garage on . 46 acre just under 1/2 acres , plenty of room for your fishing gear. Big oak trees for summer shade.

5. 2025-05-07
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$101/yr (+$8/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $1,917/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fall River Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613470
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,991
• Composite: 26.57/100
• National rank: #7186
• State rank: #335 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cassel

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #1241
• US rank: #26271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cassel, CA
• Population (ZIP): 297

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 8%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 123.0375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-04-12 Listed $100,000 SAOR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $100,000 SAOR
• 2025-10-10 Listed $150,000 SAOR
• 2025-05-07 Listed $150,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.