40 Atlantic Ave · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$780,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,012 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1990 0.32 ac lot Est $768k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located near Montauk Highway in Hampton Bays, this well-maintained ranch sits on a corner lot of just over a quarter acre. The home features 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a spacious living room with cathedral ceilings, a family room with fireplace, and an eat-in kitchen with a bright bay window. Originally built in the 1960s and expanded and renovated in 1991, the property offers a landscaped yard, detached garage, and potential space for a pool, subject to permits and approvals. Recent updates include the electrical panel and gas furnace. Conveniently located near local beaches, shopping, dining, and transportation, this property presents a versatile opportunity for year-round living, seas

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Landscaped yard
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LANDSCAPED YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• POTENTIAL SPACE FOR A POOL
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected; Public sewer available and connected; Public trash collection; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedrooms included in room count)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heat; Forced air heat; Natural gas heating; Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Basement with Bilco door(s) and crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $780k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $746k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $746k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,457/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $218k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($768k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $445k; list at $780k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $745,699 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.78%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $768,108
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64 Shore Rd	0.11mi	2/1.0	988 (-2%)	5mo	$750,000	$759	83
27 Atlantic Ave	0.14mi	2/1.5	990 (-2%)	19mo	$675,000	$682	72
47 King St	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,012 (0%)	12mo	$840,000	$830	61
2 Flocee Ln	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,109 (+10%)	16mo	$800,000	$721	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-20,201
• Equity at exit: $116,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $247,141
• Equity at exit: $67,440

Cash invested: $218,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,090
• Tax from tax record: −$423 /mo · $5,082/yr
• Insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,566
• Net cashflow: $1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,125

Max offer price $780,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $195,000
• Closing costs: $23,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	44d	1	0.07mi
129 Lamplight Cir Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	734	$3,245	$4.42	6d	12	0.57mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	44d	1	0.68mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	44d	1	0.79mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	0.81mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	44d	1	0.90mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	18d	1	1.14mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	11d	1	1.16mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	1.19mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	19d	1	1.23mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	1.37mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	1.37mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	44d	1	1.38mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	44d	1	1.39mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	24d	1	1.44mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $780,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $780,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $780,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $780,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $780,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $780,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $780,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $780,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $780,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $780,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $780,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $780,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $780,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $780,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $780,000 Active
16. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $445,000
17. 2020-12-16
    soldstatus $443,000 Closed
18. 2020-07-27
    listed $439,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,082 · $423/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,132 · $761/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,050/yr (+$338/mo · 79.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $89,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,692
• − Property taxes: −$5,082
• − Insurance: −$3,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,159
• − Management: −$7,159
• − Depreciation: −$22,691
• Taxable loss: −$198
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$48
• After-tax cash flow: $12,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+77.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $780,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $445,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-16 Sold (MLS) $443,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-27 Listed $439,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $5,082 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.