4421 Arrow Ln · Indian Mountain Lake, PA 18058

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1958 0.44 ac lot Est $225k · at est. $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to tranquility in this charming 3 bedroom, 1 full bath ranch-style home, perfectly situated on a beautifully manicured corner lot with a lakeview. This property offers the quintessential outdoor lifestyle, located just across the street and a short, easy walk to the lake, beach, playground, and clubhouse. The spacious yard is a true highlight, providing an ideal setting for backyard BBQs, lawn games, or simply relaxing and enjoying the fresh air. Inside, the kitchen features stylish butcher block countertops, vinyl flooring throughout the home, while the cozy living room is kept warm by a kerosene heater. Enjoy the convenience of having community amenities at your fingertips. This is

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Community amenities
• Lakeview

Tags

• LAKEVIEW
• SPACIOUS YARD
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property classified as residential single family residence
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($355/year) covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities: Clubhouse, picnic area, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking (3 spaces); Gravel off-street parking pad
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family house; Residential property; Corner lot location; Located in the Robin Hood Lakes subdivision
• Construction: Fiberglass and shingle roof; Built as a house (structure type); Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Level, cleared lot; Paved road access; Private maintained road; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Kerosene heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Unfurnished; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.7% in Indian Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,349 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $180k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.42%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Acorn Ln	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	952 (-1%)	0mo	$220,000	$231	76
8708 Lady Marion Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (0%)	10mo	$200,000	$208	73
8676 Twin Lake Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+4%)	3mo	$237,000	$237	65
9061 Robinhood Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	855 (-11%)	10mo	$200,000	$234	64
9081 Sherwood Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	824 (-14%)	5mo	$210,000	$255	62
1528 Primrose Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0	864 (-10%)	21mo	$138,000	$160	52
8803 Robinhood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	12mo	$229,000	$217	51
8879 Robinhood Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+10%)	19mo	$147,900	$140	50
161 Acorn Ln	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+5%)	24mo	$230,000	$228	49
8755 Twin Lake Dr	0.31mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,011 (+5%)	18mo	$315,000	$312	49
4155 Greenwood Dr	0.63mi	2/1.0	900 (-6%)	24mo	$225,000	$250	40
4194 Forest Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,036 (+8%)	18mo	$292,000	$282	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $113,929
• Equity at exit: $141,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $297,353
• Equity at exit: $260,189

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18058

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,883/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,813

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Iowa Rd Albrightsville, PA	3.0	1.0	930	$2,750	$2.96	23d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $220,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $220,000 Active
17. 2025-10-09
    historical $1,750
18. 2025-10-07
    historical
19. 2025-09-13
    listed $1,750
20. 2025-09-12
    price $224,900
21. 2025-07-18
    listed $229,000 Active
22. 2025-07-05
    listed $229,000 Active
23. 2024-06-02
    historical $1,700
24. 2024-05-11
    price $1,700
25. 2024-05-06
    listed $1,850
26. 2024-04-23
    historical $1,850
27. 2024-04-02
    price $1,850
28. 2024-01-29
    listed $1,950
29. 2023-10-31
    soldstatus $180,000
30. 2023-10-30
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed
31. 2023-09-22
    listed $187,000 Active
32. 2023-04-24
    soldstatus $63,000
33. 2017-12-06
    soldstatus $60,100
34. 2017-11-17
    soldstatus $60,100
35. 2017-10-19
    listed $59,900
36. 2016-02-02
    soldstatus $48,500
37. 2016-01-29
    soldstatus $48,500
38. 2015-05-21
    listed $51,900
39. 2012-05-22
    soldstatus $54,000
40. 1978-08-11
    soldstatus $17,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,679 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: +$797/yr (+$66/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,883
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $5,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $7,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Indian Mountain Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1349
• US rank: #16713

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,884

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 188.6013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1179.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $220,000 PMAR
• 2025-10-09 Rental Removed $1,750 PMAR
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed for Rent $1,750 PMAR
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $224,900 PMAR
• 2025-07-18 Listed $229,000 GLVRMLS
• 2025-07-05 Listed $229,000 PMAR
• 2024-06-02 Rental Removed $1,700 PMAR
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $1,700 PMAR
• 2024-05-06 Listed for Rent $1,850 PMAR
• 2024-04-23 Rental Removed $1,850 PMAR
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $1,850 PMAR
• 2024-01-29 Listed for Rent $1,950 PMAR
• 2023-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-30 Sold (MLS) $180,000 PMAR
• 2023-09-22 Listed $187,000 PMAR
• 2023-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $60,100 Public Records
• 2017-11-17 Sold (MLS) $60,100 PMAR
• 2017-10-19 Listed $59,900 PMAR
• 2016-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2016-01-29 Sold (MLS) $48,500 PMAR
• 2015-05-21 Listed $51,900 PMAR
• 2012-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1978-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $17,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,883 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.