1223 N Broadway St · China, TX 77613

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,046 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

0.69 ac lot $103/sqft · 24% below area Est $277k · 24% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on . 69 acres in a sought-after neighborhood in China, TX in the HJISD. Surrounded by beautiful mature oak trees, this well-maintained home features original wallpaper and vintage light fixtures that add timeless character throughout. One bedroom includes an attached study/sunroom, perfect for a home office or relaxing space. Major recent updates include a brand-new roof, electrical system and HVAC. Complete with a spacious 2 car garage with a ton of storage. A rare opportunity to own a character filled home with solid updates in a fantastic location, full of charm, history and potential.

Key facts

• Electrical system
• Mature oak trees
• Hvac

Tags

• MATURE OAK TREES
• ATTACHED STUDY
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
• HVAC
• SPACIOUS STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (33.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in China — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#730 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin-Jefferson ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #135 of 826 in TX (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: China El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 558 students, 54% FRL); Henderson Middle (math 59% / reading 47%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 617 students, 41% FRL); Hardin-Jefferson H S (math 68% / reading 67%, grade B, #158 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 749 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,016 (33.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,383
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -24.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
461 Benoit Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,911 (-7%)	8mo	$360,000	$188	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,358
• Equity at exit: $94,425

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $32,726
• Equity at exit: $145,520

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77613

• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,921

Max offer price $149,298

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-274	-5% $-347	+0% $-419	+5% $-492	+10% $-565
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-474	+0% $-419	+5% $-365	+10% $-310
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-366	base $-419	+0.5pp $-474	+1.0pp $-529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    price $210,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $235,000 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on . 69 acres in a sought-after neighborhood in China, TX in the HJISD. Surrounded by beautiful mature oak trees, this well-maintained home features original wallpaper and vintage light fixtures that add timeless character throughout. One bedroom includes an attached study/sunroom, perfect for a home office or relaxing space. Major recent updates include a brand-new roof, electrical system and HVAC. Complete with a spacious 2 car garage with a ton of storage. A rare opportunity to own a character filled home with solid updates in a fantastic location, full of charm, history and potential.

19. 2026-04-09
    listed $240,000 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on . 69 acres in a sought-after neighborhood in China, TX in the HJISD. Surrounded by beautiful mature oak trees, this well-maintained home features original wallpaper and vintage light fixtures that add timeless character throughout. One bedroom includes an attached study/sunroom, perfect for a home office or relaxing space. Major recent updates include a brand-new roof, electrical system and HVAC. Complete with a spacious 2 car garage with a ton of storage. A rare opportunity to own a character filled home with solid updates in a fantastic location, full of charm, history and potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,847
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,335
• − Management: −$1,335
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$8,857
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,126
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin-Jefferson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822410
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,336
• Composite: 45.14/100
• National rank: #2682
• State rank: #135 of 826 in TX

Livability — China

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #13596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: China, TX
• Population (ZIP): 686

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $235,000 BBOR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $240,000 BBOR