408 Carpenter Ave #24 · Newburgh, NY 12550

$124,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · Condo · 197 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition $170/sqft · 28% below area Est $173k · 28% under $294/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please be advised the City has set a deadline for all "completed" offer packages to be submitted by Friday 4/3/2026 at 5pm. A completed offer package includes a completed PODA application.**One bedroom, one bathroom Condominium in Newburgh! Quiet community of Northwood Village. Ready to occupy and laundry in building. Sit on your own front porch and look over the courtyard. Great opportunity for first time buyers or downsizers. Close to shopping, schools and amenities. City of Newburgh owned property. Preference is given to owner-occupant purchasers in accordance with the City of Newburgh’s Surplus Real Property Disposition Policy (“Policy”). Agents should review the Policy by clicking link below in Member’s remarks. Potential purchasers shall present highest, best, and final offers only. Counteroffers should not be expected. All offers are subject to final approval by the Newburgh City Council. Offers that require financing must be accompanied by pre-qualification letter. Cash offers must be accompanied by proof of funds. All property is offered “as-is”. The City of Newburgh reserves the right to withdraw the property from the market or to amend any terms or conditions of these materials at any time. The City of Newburgh reserves the right to accept or reject any offers including full price offers and further reserves the right to remove the property from the market at any time. See member’s remarks for property access and offer presentation instructions. Sold as-is. Buyer to pay NYS and any local transfer taxes. Offers with financing must be accompanied by pre-qual letter; cash offers with proof of funds. **Please see agent remarks for access, showing instructions and offer presentation remarks.**

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Front porch
• Laundry in building

Tags

• LAUNDRY IN BUILDING
• FRONT PORCH
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, schools D, crime F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,596
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -27.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,252
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,069
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$294
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,465

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 North St Apt 3 Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,945	$2.78	44d	1	0.14mi
136 Johnston St Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	688	$1,900	$2.76	44d	1	0.75mi
217 3rd St Unit 3 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	600	$1,600	$2.67	14d	1	0.81mi
33 Lutheran St Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	589	$1,600	$2.72	44d	1	0.98mi
90 Grand St Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	429	$1,344	$3.13	14d	2	1.03mi
185 Broadway Unit 102 Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$1,550	$3.10	14d	1	1.10mi
96 Broadway Unit 2B Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,750	$2.33	23d	1	1.13mi
5 Vineyard Ln Apt 113 Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	737	$2,250	$3.05	23d	1	1.19mi
5 Vineyard Ln Apt 104 Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	737	$2,250	$3.05	44d	1	1.19mi
18 West St Unit 2A Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$1,525	$3.05	14d	1	1.19mi
42 Hasbrouck St Unit A Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	500	$1,500	$3.00	44d	1	1.27mi
28 Hasbrouck St Unit A Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	550	$1,500	$2.73	44d	1	1.27mi
1901 Barclay Mnr Unit 19A Newburgh, NY	1.0	1.0	565	$1,700	$3.01	44d	1	1.38mi
43 Edward St Newburgh, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$2,200	$3.38	14d	1	1.40mi
52 Benkard Ave Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$1,700	$2.72	44d	1	1.42mi
187 Renwick St Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.0	689	$1,400	$2.03	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $294 · $3,528/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 675-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   price $124,900 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 194 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 182 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 181 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 179 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 178 DOM
18. 2026-01-20
    price $149,900 1799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1799 chars)

    Please be advised the City has set a deadline for all "completed" offer packages to be submitted by Friday 4/3/2026 at 5pm. A completed offer package includes a completed PODA application.**One bedroom, one bathroom Condominium in Newburgh! Quiet community of Northwood Village. Ready to occupy and laundry in building. Sit on your own front porch and look over the courtyard. Great opportunity for first time buyers or downsizers. Close to shopping, schools and amenities. City of Newburgh owned property. Preference is given to owner-occupant purchasers in accordance with the City of Newburgh’s Surplus Real Property Disposition Policy (“Policy”). Agents should review the Policy by clicking link below in Member’s remarks. Potential purchasers shall present highest, best, and final offers only. Counteroffers should not be expected. All offers are subject to final approval by the Newburgh City Council. Offers that require financing must be accompanied by pre-qualification letter. Cash offers must be accompanied by proof of funds. All property is offered “as-is”. The City of Newburgh reserves the right to withdraw the property from the market or to amend any terms or conditions of these materials at any time. The City of Newburgh reserves the right to accept or reject any offers including full price offers and further reserves the right to remove the property from the market at any time. See member’s remarks for property access and offer presentation instructions. Sold as-is. Buyer to pay NYS and any local transfer taxes. Offers with financing must be accompanied by pre-qual letter; cash offers with proof of funds. **Please see agent remarks for access, showing instructions and offer presentation remarks.**

19. 2025-12-03
    listed $164,900 Active 1799-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1799 chars)

    Please be advised the City has set a deadline for all "completed" offer packages to be submitted by Friday 4/3/2026 at 5pm. A completed offer package includes a completed PODA application.**One bedroom, one bathroom Condominium in Newburgh! Quiet community of Northwood Village. Ready to occupy and laundry in building. Sit on your own front porch and look over the courtyard. Great opportunity for first time buyers or downsizers. Close to shopping, schools and amenities. City of Newburgh owned property. Preference is given to owner-occupant purchasers in accordance with the City of Newburgh’s Surplus Real Property Disposition Policy (“Policy”). Agents should review the Policy by clicking link below in Member’s remarks. Potential purchasers shall present highest, best, and final offers only. Counteroffers should not be expected. All offers are subject to final approval by the Newburgh City Council. Offers that require financing must be accompanied by pre-qualification letter. Cash offers must be accompanied by proof of funds. All property is offered “as-is”. The City of Newburgh reserves the right to withdraw the property from the market or to amend any terms or conditions of these materials at any time. The City of Newburgh reserves the right to accept or reject any offers including full price offers and further reserves the right to remove the property from the market at any time. See member’s remarks for property access and offer presentation instructions. Sold as-is. Buyer to pay NYS and any local transfer taxes. Offers with financing must be accompanied by pre-qual letter; cash offers with proof of funds. **Please see agent remarks for access, showing instructions and offer presentation remarks.**

20. 2023-01-20
    historical
21. 2022-11-30
    price $152,500
22. 2022-10-20
    price $159,000
23. 2022-10-11
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − HOA: −$3,528
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $1,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$312
• After-tax cash flow: $2,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed in the kitchen and bathrooms. Upgrading these areas will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — need to replace old and worn appliances
• Major bathroom fixtures — need to replace dated fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen appliances — modern appliances will attract more buyers
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — updated fixtures will appeal to buyers
• Resale new flooring — new flooring will improve the overall appearance
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract more tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · need to replace old and worn appliances	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · need to replace dated fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen appliances — modern appliances will attract more buyers ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — updated fixtures will appeal to buyers ↑
• Resale new flooring — new flooring will improve the overall appearance ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping will enhance curb appeal and attract more tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listed $164,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-30 Price Changed $152,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-11 Listed $169,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid