16880 Vondra Rd · Thompsonville, MI 49683

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1989 1.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on 1.29 acres of heavily wooded land in Thompsonville, this property offers a peaceful Up North setting just minutes from Crystal Mountain. The existing trailer has not been used in several years and will require updates and repair, making it a great opportunity for a handy buyer or someone looking for a project. With a little vision, this could become a cozy getaway or basecamp for year-round recreation. Enjoy close proximity to the Betsie River public access--perfect for kayaking, fishing, and exploring the outdoors. Located just 40 minutes from Traverse City and the shores of Lake Michigan, this property combines seclusion with convenience. Buyer to verify condition and functionality of all utilities. Endless potential in a prime recreational area!

Key facts

• Heavily wooded land
• 1.29 acre lot
• Built 1989

Tags

• HEAVILY WOODED LAND
• PRIME RECREATIONAL AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential property; Other architectural style; Built in 1989; Metal roof
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: 1.29-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $949 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#604 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Benzie County Central Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Manistee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manistee County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $70k implies a 774% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $67,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.20%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $49,112
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.16×
• Total profit: $120,534
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49683

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $147/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $949

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $989	-5% $969	+0% $949	+5% $929	+10% $826
Rent	-10% $814	-5% $881	+0% $949	+5% $1,017	+10% $1,085
Rate	-1.0pp $984	-0.5pp $967	base $949	+0.5pp $931	+1.0pp $913

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   price $69,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 27 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,000 Active 26 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    listed $79,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Tucked away on 1.29 acres of heavily wooded land in Thompsonville, this property offers a peaceful Up North setting just minutes from Crystal Mountain. The existing trailer has not been used in several years and will require updates and repair, making it a great opportunity for a handy buyer or someone looking for a project. With a little vision, this could become a cozy getaway or basecamp for year-round recreation. Enjoy close proximity to the Betsie River public access--perfect for kayaking, fishing, and exploring the outdoors. Located just 40 minutes from Traverse City and the shores of Lake Michigan, this property combines seclusion with convenience. Buyer to verify condition and functionality of all utilities. Endless potential in a prime recreational area!

20. 2026-05-04
    listed $79,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Tucked away on 1.29 acres of heavily wooded land in Thompsonville, this property offers a peaceful Up North setting just minutes from Crystal Mountain. The existing trailer has not been used in several years and will require updates and repair, making it a great opportunity for a handy buyer or someone looking for a project. With a little vision, this could become a cozy getaway or basecamp for year-round recreation. Enjoy close proximity to the Betsie River public access--perfect for kayaking, fishing, and exploring the outdoors. Located just 40 minutes from Traverse City and the shores of Lake Michigan, this property combines seclusion with convenience. Buyer to verify condition and functionality of all utilities. Endless potential in a prime recreational area!

21. 2026-05-04
    listed $79,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Tucked away on 1.29 acres of heavily wooded land in Thompsonville, this property offers a peaceful Up North setting just minutes from Crystal Mountain. The existing trailer has not been used in several years and will require updates and repair, making it a great opportunity for a handy buyer or someone looking for a project. With a little vision, this could become a cozy getaway or basecamp for year-round recreation. Enjoy close proximity to the Betsie River public access--perfect for kayaking, fishing, and exploring the outdoors. Located just 40 minutes from Traverse City and the shores of Lake Michigan, this property combines seclusion with convenience. Buyer to verify condition and functionality of all utilities. Endless potential in a prime recreational area!

22. 1990-09-01
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $147 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$465/yr (+$39/mo · 315.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$147
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $10,872
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,609
• After-tax cash flow: $8,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Benzie County Central Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604950
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,158
• Composite: 32.84/100
• National rank: #5616
• State rank: #234 of 540 in MI

Livability — Thompsonville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #20110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,070

Population outlook (Manistee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,785 people
• By 2030: 23,227 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 21,795 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 20,653 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 18,833 · -20.8%
• By 2100: 15,491 · -34.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Manistee

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.2% · R 57.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+15.4 2012: D+5.9 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.79%
• Current HPI: 176.9311
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+887.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $79,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $79,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Listed $79,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 1990-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $147 · -72.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.