404 Circle Dr · Clovis, NM 88101

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 927 sqft · SingleFamily · 50 Days on market

Built 1964 9,765 sqft lot $129/sqft · 9% above area Est $110k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quaint and well cared for, this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is full of potential and would make a wonderful starter home or investment property. With good bones and a comfortable layout, this property offers a solid foundation to make it your own. Outside, you’ll love the extremely large backyard with plenty of room to spread out, garden, entertain, or add future improvements. A storage shed provides extra space for tools, lawn equipment, or hobbies. A great opportunity with space, charm, and potential!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Storage shed
• 9,765 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered parking space, 1 total garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot about 0.22 acres (approximately 9,765 sq ft)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#171 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Clovis Municipal Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #13 of 29 in NM (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.80%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,733
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 9.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,026
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $46,308
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88101

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $464/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $909

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1509 W Llano Estacado Blvd Unit b Clovis, NM	2.0	2.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	43d	1	0.17mi
532 Circle Dr Clovis, NM	3.0	1.5	1114	$1,100	$0.99	43d	1	0.24mi
3205 N Main St Unit 301 Clovis, NM	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,350	$1.33	43d	1	0.89mi
2100 Mitchell St Unit 14 Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	743	$750	$1.01	43d	1	1.07mi
109 State Ave Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0	816	$2,000	$2.45	43d	1	1.23mi
1500 Echols Ave Clovis, NM	2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$948	$1.04	43d	5	1.24mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $120,000 Active 513-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $464 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 106.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$464
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,100
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$504
• After-tax cash flow: $3,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clovis Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,532
• Composite: 33.52/100
• National rank: #5435
• State rank: #13 of 29 in NM

Livability — Clovis

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #22374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clovis, NM
• County: Curry County · 44,846 people
• City population: 44,846
• Metro: Clovis, NM
• Population (ZIP): 44,846
• Household income: $56,587
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1724.0

Population outlook (Curry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,742 people
• By 2030: 47,759 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 45,444 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 42,403 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 33,878 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 22,414 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 42% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Curry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 27.8% · R 70.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.79%
• Current HPI: 121.1877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.54%
• Metro: Clovis, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $120,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $464 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.