Nacogdoches Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$564,990

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,328 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Excellent condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Classic, contemporary and innovative design come together in The Nacogdoches floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Walden Creek. Open-concept family and dining spaces showcase our LifeDesign℠ refinements that grant this floor plan exceptional style and livability. Gather around the kitchen island to enjoy delectable treats and celebrate special achievements. The Owner's Retreat is privately situated away from the home's gathering spaces and showcases a lovely Owner's Bath and a spacious walk-in closet. Three bedrooms each feature individual bathrooms and provide plenty of privacy from their spots spread out across both levels.

Key facts

• Owner's retreat
• Owner's bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NACOGDOCHES FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT FAMILY SPACES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• OWNER'S RETREAT
• OWNER'S BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $564,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,058,583.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $565k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-63k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (47.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (54.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (54.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.3% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1764 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $32k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($497k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,180 (54.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.24% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.33%
• DSCR: 0.05
• GRM: 34.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,058,583
• List price: $564,990
• Delta: -46.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11635 Renaissance Dr	0.59mi	4/4.0	3,627 (+9%)	3mo	$1,099,000	$303	55
19005 Harbor Side Blvd	0.66mi	4/4.5	3,272 (-2%)	19mo	$634,000	$194	49
11520 Grandview Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	3,686 (+11%)	5mo	$929,000	$252	46
11584 Grandview Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,233 (-3%)	14mo	$839,999	$260	46
18911 Mystic Pt	0.61mi	4/3.5	3,632 (+9%)	11mo	$1,150,000	$317	45
11533 Renaissance Dr	0.39mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,798 (+14%)	8mo	$1,139,000	$300	45
18989 Harbor Side Blvd	0.58mi	4/3.5	3,006 (-10%)	15mo	$738,500	$246	42
73 La Jolla Cir	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,935 (-12%)	7mo	$549,900	$187	40
11675 Renaissance Dr	0.70mi	4/4.0	3,100 (-7%)	19mo	$959,000	$309	40
11356 Lake Oak Dr	0.59mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,617 (+9%)	14mo	$799,900	$221	40
63 La Jolla Cir	0.72mi	4/3.0	3,527 (+6%)	20mo	$775,000	$220	36
18904 Mystic Pt	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,043 (-9%)	19mo	$649,000	$213	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -63.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-514,621
• Equity at exit: $157,838

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.07×
• Total profit: $-909,364
• Equity at exit: $91,527

Cash invested: $296,403 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 59.2 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $587,900 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +70.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1764
• Price-to-rent: 18.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,323 /mo · $15,879/yr
• Insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-5,268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,260

Max offer price $296,280

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,537	-5% $-4,902	+0% $-5,268	+5% $-5,634	+10% $-6,000
Rent	-10% $-5,473	-5% $-5,370	+0% $-5,268	+5% $-5,166	+10% $-5,063
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,735	-0.5pp $-4,999	base $-5,268	+0.5pp $-5,542	+1.0pp $-5,821

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $264,646
• Closing costs: $31,757
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $584,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage/parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan homeActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 3328

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Nacogdoches)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $564,990 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $564,990 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $564,990 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $564,990 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $564,990 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $564,990 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $564,990 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $564,990 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $564,990 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $564,990 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $564,990 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $564,990 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $564,990 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $564,990 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $564,990 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $564,990 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $564,990 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $564,990 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $564,990 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $564,990 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $564,990 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $564,990 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $564,990 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $564,990 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $564,990 Active 144 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $564,990 Active 143 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $564,990 Active 142 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $564,990 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $564,990 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $564,990 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $564,990 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $564,990 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $564,990 Active 136 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $564,990 Active 135 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $564,990 Active 134 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $564,990 Active 133 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $564,990 Active 132 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $564,990 Active 131 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $564,990 Active 130 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $564,990 Active 129 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $564,990 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $564,990 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $564,990 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $564,990 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $564,990 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $564,990 Active 123 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $564,990 Active 122 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $564,990 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $564,990 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $564,990 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$59,297
• − Property taxes: −$15,879
• − Insurance: −$5,293
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$30,795
• Taxable loss: −$85,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$20,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-42,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and high-end finishes. It is move-in ready and would be a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and maintain its value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bedrooms — Hardwood flooring in the bedrooms can add value and make the space more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Lincoln El C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $584,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage/parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan homeActive listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 3328

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (Nacogdoches)