126/146 Cuble Rd · Birdsong, AR 72386

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1990 0.82 ac lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Sold as is!!! Could be rehabbed 2 homes & lot located in small community, only minutes from I40 North & 555.

Key facts

• I40 north
• Small community
• 0.82 acre lot

Tags

• SMALL COMMUNITY
• I40 NORTH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 35/100 on livability (#539 in AR) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rivercrest School District #57 (rural): math 32% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #128 of 238 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($242 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.11%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $38,617
• Equity at exit: $15,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.11×
• Total profit: $89,308
• Equity at exit: $24,253

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72386

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $552	+0% $540	+5% $528	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $462	-5% $501	+0% $540	+5% $579	+10% $618
Rate	-1.0pp $558	-0.5pp $549	base $540	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-12-07
   status Pending
2. 2024-09-30
   price $35,000
3. 2024-05-22
   listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $6,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,511
• After-tax cash flow: $4,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rivercrest School District #57
• NCES district ID: 0500045
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,115
• Composite: 28.4/100
• National rank: #6764
• State rank: #128 of 238 in AR

Livability — Birdsong

• Score: 35/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #27730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birdsong, AR
• Population (ZIP): 1,385

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-07 Pending — EARA
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $35,000 EARA
• 2024-05-22 Listed $45,000 EARA

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $35 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.