136 Beach Rd · Wading River, NY 11792

$616,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1930 10,019 sqft lot Est $553k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute ranch exudes warmth, character & charm. Floor to ceiling stone fireplace is the star of the great room with vaulted ceilings, beautiful wood paneled walls & wide plank flooring. Perfect starter home or vacation retreat in beach community w/ many recent updates including: flooring/insulation/windows & wiring in master suite, driveway, main bath, roof & appliances. Detached storage could be used as storage or studio space., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $617k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $594k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $505k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $505k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Wading River — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#779 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riley Avenue School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 461 students, 34% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($598k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $350k; list at $617k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $505,056 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.89%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $553,340
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Peach St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,571 (+4%)	12mo	$770,000	$490	52
39 Hill St E	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,685 (+11%)	5mo	$615,000	$365	37
208 Sylvan Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (+14%)	10mo	$625,000	$362	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-108,116
• Equity at exit: $91,982

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-104,678
• Equity at exit: $53,338

Cash invested: $172,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11792

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,235
• Tax from tax record: −$626 /mo · $7,507/yr
• Insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,061
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,212

Max offer price $594,328

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $154,225
• Closing costs: $18,507
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Cliff Rd Unit 1510785P Wading River, NY	3.0	3.0	1711	$5,070	$2.96	24d	1	0.70mi
184 Creek Rd Unit 1510783P Wading River, NY	3.0	2.0	1722	$5,010	$2.91	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-14
   listed $616,900 Active
3. 2026-02-02
   price $616,900
4. 2026-02-02
   historical $6,169,000
5. 2025-12-01
   historical
6. 2025-09-13
   listed $679,900 Active
7. 2025-09-08
   historical
8. 2020-05-05
   soldstatus $350,000
9. 2020-03-24
   soldstatus $350,000 Closed 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   Super cute ranch exudes warmth, character & charm. Floor to ceiling stone fireplace is the star of the great room with vaulted ceilings, beautiful wood paneled walls & wide plank flooring. Perfect starter home or vacation retreat in beach community w/ many recent updates including: flooring/insulation/windows & wiring in master suite, driveway, main bath, roof & appliances. Detached storage could be used as storage or studio space., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

10. 2020-02-25
    status Under Contract 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Super cute ranch exudes warmth, character & charm. Floor to ceiling stone fireplace is the star of the great room with vaulted ceilings, beautiful wood paneled walls & wide plank flooring. Perfect starter home or vacation retreat in beach community w/ many recent updates including: flooring/insulation/windows & wiring in master suite, driveway, main bath, roof & appliances. Detached storage could be used as storage or studio space., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

11. 2019-12-13
    listed $339,000 New 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Super cute ranch exudes warmth, character & charm. Floor to ceiling stone fireplace is the star of the great room with vaulted ceilings, beautiful wood paneled walls & wide plank flooring. Perfect starter home or vacation retreat in beach community w/ many recent updates including: flooring/insulation/windows & wiring in master suite, driveway, main bath, roof & appliances. Detached storage could be used as storage or studio space., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Business Located At:,Rental Income:

12. 2012-08-17
    soldstatus $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,507 · $626/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,966 · $747/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,459/yr (+$122/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,556
• − Property taxes: −$7,507
• − Insurance: −$3,084
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,849
• − Management: −$4,849
• − Depreciation: −$17,946
• Taxable loss: −$12,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,924
• After-tax cash flow: $1,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wading River

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #779
• US rank: #14836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wading River, NY
• City population: 8,562
• Population (ZIP): 8,562

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.79%
• Current HPI: 344.4308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+224.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Listed $616,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $616,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Coming Soon $6,169,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Listed $679,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-24 Sold (MLS) $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-13 Listed $339,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,507 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.