12420 State Highway 99e Hwy · Red Bluff, CA 96080

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1966 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bed, 2-bath home on nearly ⅓ acre in the peaceful Dairyville area of Red Bluff. Features an open living/dining layout, updated kitchen, and 2-car garage. Large lot backs to orchards for added privacy and country views. Zoned EA (Estate Agricultural) perfect for small-scale farming or adding outbuildings. Private well and septic. Great opportunity for homeowners or investors to add finishing touches and build equity. Solar monthly payment of $232, about 7yrs left. Short Sale foreclosure opportunity

Key facts

• Private well
• Septic
• Large lot

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DINING LAYOUT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE LOT
• BACKS TO ORCHARDS
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.7% in Red Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#698 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, crime F, amenities F.
• Lassen View Union Elementary (rural): math 47% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #142 of 517 in CA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 262 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.83%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12357 State Highway 99 E	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-10%)	6mo	$195,000	$184	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $21,806
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $59,073
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96080

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,411/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-12-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-08
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,411
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,581
• After-tax cash flow: $6,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lassen View Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0621090
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,781
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2974
• State rank: #142 of 517 in CA

Livability — Red Bluff

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #21144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tehama County · 31,554 people
• City population: 31,554
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,554
• Household income: $66,076
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.80%
• Current HPI: 246.877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Red Bluff, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $100,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,411 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.