1712 Poppy Way · Antioch, CA 94509

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1964 6,660 sqft lot Est $503k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-upper located in the heart of Antioch is a canvas ready for your home renovation design. This is a prime opportunity to bring your creative vision to life. Features a functional layout with ample living space with 3 bed and 2 bath Good family room space and open kitchen. Corner lot with lots of opportunity. Situated in prime location just minutes from local shopping, and freeway access. Great investment opportunity!

Key facts

• 6,660 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1964
• Construction: Stucco construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range / cooktop
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Brick fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($438/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $300k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,377 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $503,064
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Crestview Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,197 (-2%)	1mo	$510,000	$426	94
1405 Tulip Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	4mo	$520,000	$387	75
2705 Adobe Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,289 (+5%)	1mo	$525,000	$407	59
1745 San Jose Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+6%)	4mo	$555,000	$426	59
1746 San Jose Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+6%)	5mo	$525,000	$403	58
2709 Cabrillo Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+6%)	2mo	$555,000	$426	56
2788 Entrada Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+6%)	7mo	$540,000	$415	56
2725 Entrada Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+6%)	3mo	$535,000	$411	55
2737 Barcelona Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+6%)	5mo	$500,000	$384	54
2101 L St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+8%)	4mo	$388,000	$293	54
1143 Cook St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,065 (-13%)	2mo	$470,000	$441	44
1216 W 7th St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-14%)	7mo	$415,000	$394	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-51,083
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,423
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,524 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,109/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,478

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 Crestview Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,949	$2.46	43d	1	0.11mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	2d	12	0.12mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	755	$1,815	$2.40	10d	1	0.12mi
1209 Tulip Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,995	$2.23	43d	1	0.20mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$2,180	$3.04	1d	22	0.23mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$3,069	$3.66	1d	8	0.25mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	24d	1	0.26mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	43d	1	0.26mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,400	$2.36	1d	10	0.27mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	5d	1	0.29mi
2112 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,900	$2.51	43d	1	0.33mi
2202 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	4.0	2.5	1487	$3,500	$2.35	43d	1	0.35mi
2221 Dogwood Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,995	$2.60	43d	1	0.36mi
2400 Horizon Ln #140 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	845	$1,850	$2.19	43d	1	0.38mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	43d	1	0.40mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,850	$2.23	44d	1	0.45mi
1902 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,100	$2.69	43d	1	0.47mi
712 O St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,822	$2.12	10d	1	0.47mi
2005 San Jose Dr #241 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.5	782	$1,900	$2.43	5d	1	0.48mi
2104 Lemontree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	822	$1,695	$2.06	43d	1	0.49mi
2005 San Jose Dr Unit F130 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,795	$2.16	5d	1	0.49mi
2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,437	$3.55	1d	8	0.52mi
2106 Peppertree Way #3 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	43d	1	0.55mi
2106 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	5d	1	0.55mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	43d	1	0.55mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	43d	1	0.57mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	43d	1	0.58mi
2205 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,695	$1.88	15d	1	0.60mi
2725 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	18d	1	0.65mi
1108 W 5th St Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	846	$1,750	$2.07	22d	1	0.72mi
1002 W 4th St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,495	$2.50	43d	1	0.81mi
1017 H St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.86mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	43d	1	0.87mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	43d	1	0.87mi
1312 Mission Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,975	$2.07	4d	1	0.88mi
618 W 7th St Unit 8 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$2,095	$1.82	22d	1	0.91mi
618 W 7th St Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,995	$1.73	5d	1	0.91mi
3601 Fairview Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,693	$2.12	12d	1	0.94mi
3521 Fairview Dr Apt B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$2,000	$2.42	43d	1	0.95mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	715	$1,962	$2.74	22d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $300,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   historical $300,000
7. 1991-04-30
   soldstatus $129,500
8. 1978-01-20
   soldstatus $48,500
9. 1978-01-01
   soldstatus $48,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,285
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,109
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,423
• − Management: −$2,423
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,128
• After-tax cash flow: $1,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+518.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $300,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1991-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $129,500 Public Records
• 1978-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 1978-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,109 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.