70 Swan St · Aberdeen, MD 21001

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Townhouse public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1941 4,586 sqft lot Est $215k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

Key facts

• Built 1941
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.8% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#42 in MD, #1,545 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aberdeen Middle (math 5% / reading 27%, grade F, #183 of 225 statewide, top 84%, 1,082 students, 63% FRL); Aberdeen High (math 47% / reading 56%, grade D+, #105 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 1,495 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 24% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $185k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,768 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,292
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Swan St	0.00mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$189	100
9 Defense Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	924 (0%)	4mo	$194,000	$210	83
66 Liberty St	0.18mi	4/1.5 (+1)	984 (+6%)	0mo	$195,000	$198	74
56 Aberdeen Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	840 (-9%)	9mo	$210,000	$250	72
17 Aberdeen Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	816 (-12%)	1mo	$202,000	$248	62
57 Liberty St	0.16mi	3/1.0	816 (-12%)	12mo	$200,000	$245	59
33 Swan St	0.23mi	3/1.0	816 (-12%)	17mo	$190,000	$233	51
3 Liberty St	0.31mi	3/1.0	816 (-12%)	23mo	$180,000	$221	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,064
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,874
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21001

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,147/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $298	+0% $246	+5% $193	+10% $141
Rent	-10% $107	-5% $176	+0% $246	+5% $315	+10% $385
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $293	base $246	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Swan St Aberdeen, MD	2.0	1.0	672	$1,400	$2.08	25d	1	0.01mi
70 Swan St Aberdeen, MD	3.0	2.0	924	$1,715	$1.86	5d	1	0.01mi
309 S Parke St Aberdeen, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	2d	1	0.43mi
27 E Bel Air Ave Unit 1 Aberdeen, MD	3.0	1.0	923	$1,750	$1.90	44d	1	0.55mi
27 E Bel Air Ave Apt 2 Aberdeen, MD	3.0	1.0	944	$1,550	$1.64	44d	1	0.55mi
114 S Parke St Apt A Aberdeen, MD	2.0	1.5	825	$1,400	$1.70	44d	1	0.57mi
104 S Parke St Aberdeen, MD	3.0	1.5	900	$1,700	$1.89	25d	1	0.57mi
742 Nottingham Dr Aberdeen, MD	3.0	1.0	1084	$2,200	$2.03	5d	1	0.91mi
686 Holly Cir Aberdeen, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0	1150	$1,600	$1.39	2d	1	0.99mi
514 W Bel Air Ave Unit 2 Aberdeen, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	18d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   status Active
3. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-23
   listed $185,000 Active
5. 2026-03-22
   historical $185,000
6. 2015-01-27
   soldstatus $60,000 Sold 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

7. 2015-01-27
   soldstatus $60,000 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

8. 2015-01-02
   status Contingent (No Kick Out) 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

9. 2015-01-02
   historical 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

10. 2014-11-25
    price $73,000 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

11. 2014-10-16
    listed $79,900 Active 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

12. 2014-10-16
    listed $73,000 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    REDUCED! NEAT & TIDY 3 BEDROOM/2 BATH DUPLEX AVAILABLE AT A GREAT PRICE! NEW CARPET, FRESH PAINT, NEW APPLIANCES, LITE FIXTURES. LOCATED ON CONVENIENT CORNER LOT. CLOSE TO APG, SHOPPING & MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ARTERIES. HOME WARRANTY & UP TO 3% CLOSING HELP AVAILABLE. DON'T DELAY ON THIS ONE!

13. 2010-11-01
    historical Expired
14. 2010-11-01
    historical
15. 2010-07-22
    price
16. 2010-03-20
    listed Active
17. 2010-03-20
    listed $114,900
18. 2009-10-04
    historical
19. 2009-10-04
    historical
20. 2008-10-23
    listed
21. 2008-10-23
    listed $139,900
22. 2006-08-18
    soldstatus $130,900
23. 2006-04-28
    historical
24. 2006-04-28
    listed $130,900
25. 2004-05-27
    soldstatus $3,876,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$435/yr (+$36/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,147
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$99
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$24
• After-tax cash flow: $2,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1545

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 27,168
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 27,168
• Household income: $83,238
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 736.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.65%
• Current HPI: 247.668
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-95.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-22 Coming Soon $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-01-27 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-01-27 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MRIS
• 2015-01-02 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-01-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-11-25 Price Changed $73,000 MRIS
• 2014-10-16 Listed $79,900 MRIS
• 2014-10-16 Listed $73,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-11-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-22 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-03-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-03-20 Listed $114,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-10-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-10-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-10-23 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-10-23 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-08-18 Sold (MLS) $130,900 MRIS
• 2006-04-28 Listed $130,900 MRIS
• 2006-04-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $3,876,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,147 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.