514 Garver St · Rockford, IL 61102

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1962 0.30 ac lot ↓ 25% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 1014 square foot ranch in county on a large double lot with fenced yard and 2 1/2 car garage. Attached shed and car port. Oak kitchen with white appliances include gas stove, refrigerator, and dishwasher. Washer and dryer also stay. Laminate flooring with carpeted 3 bedrooms. Large bath room with large shower. New ceiling fan in living room. Nice deck porch on front and south side of the house. Deck at the rear for entertaining! Window air conditioner. Estate sale sold as is.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $661 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 23.9% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcintosh Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,927 of 2,056 statewide, top 100%, 333 students, 0% FRL); Thurgood Marshall School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #1 of 665 statewide, top 0%, 482 students, 0% FRL); Auburn High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #210 of 693 statewide, top 30%, 1,936 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 73% district-wide (73 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 14% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Rockford SD 205 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.94%
• DSCR: 3.80
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,568
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 S Memorial Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+6%)	9mo	$75,000	$69	75
503 Vincent Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+10%)	2mo	$140,000	$125	73
448 Garver Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-11%)	13mo	$100,000	$111	62
423 Atwood Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-15%)	3mo	$147,500	$171	62
426 Vincent Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-10%)	13mo	$79,000	$87	60
510 Garver Ave	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-9%)	24mo	$22,500	$24	60
3911 Delaware St	0.66mi	3/1.0	924 (-9%)	1mo	$106,000	$115	54
321 Atwood Ave	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,120 (+10%)	18mo	$125,000	$112	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $34,863
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.73×
• Total profit: $84,814
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61102

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,508/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $661

Break-even live

Break-even rent $482

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $686	-5% $674	+0% $661	+5% $648	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $557	-5% $609	+0% $661	+5% $713	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $684	-0.5pp $672	base $661	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3834 Preston St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,300	$1.43	15d	1	0.68mi
615 Newport Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.70mi
504 Lexington Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	15d	1	1.00mi
3016 School St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1090	$1,400	$1.28	46d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 3-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $45,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,508 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,508
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,724
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $6,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 147,297
• Population (ZIP): 16,620

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.81%
• Current HPI: 189.9634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Delisted — NWIAR
• 2026-06-01 Listed $45,000 NWIAR
• 2019-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 2019-07-22 Sold (MLS) $54,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-19 Sold (MLS) $54,900 NWIAR
• 2019-05-13 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-29 Listed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-29 Listed $59,900 NWIAR

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,508 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.