172 Lewis Cir · Commerce, GA 30529

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1991 0.40 ac lot Est $324k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this beautifully maintained single-story ranch in the heart of Commerce! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths across 1,802 square feet, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value-ideal for first-time home buyers. Step inside to find a warm and inviting layout with plenty of natural light and room to grow. The home has been thoughtfully cared for, with major updates already taken care of for you-including a newer roof and HVAC system, both replaced within the past 3 years-giving you peace of mind from day one. The generous living spaces flow seamlessly, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen and dining areas offer ample room for gatherings, while the bedrooms provide cozy retreats at the end of the day. One of the standout features of this home is the seller's willingness to include all furnishings with the sale-making this a truly move-in-ready opportunity. Whether you're just starting out or looking for a hassle-free transition, this home checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to own this charming, well-kept home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools. Schedule your showing today and see all the potential this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Convenient location
• Hvac system

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• MOVE-IN-READY OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,008 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.74%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
172 Lewis Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,802 (0%)	0mo	$325,000	$180	100
414 Ridgeway St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,757 (-2%)	6mo	$275,000	$157	75
175 Orchard Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-1%)	8mo	$280,000	$158	72
192 Louise Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,039 (+13%)	7mo	$315,000	$154	67
80 Sherwood Dr Lot 06	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,939 (+8%)	7mo	$380,962	$196	66
379 Mount Olive Church Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-1%)	6mo	$210,000	$118	59
191 Orchard Cir	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-11%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	59
494 Bishop Ct	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,964 (+9%)	5mo	$304,000	$155	58
51 Pine Ave	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,726 (-4%)	3mo	$180,000	$104	53
80 Sherwood Dr Lot 06	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,939 (+8%)	7mo	$380,962	$196	50
97 Kensington Ct	0.43mi	3/3.0	1,547 (-14%)	3mo	$310,000	$200	50
1174 Hospital Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,681 (-7%)	3mo	$405,000	$241	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $148,096
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $443,307
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30529

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,196/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,455

Max offer price $261,517

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Leigh St Commerce, GA	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	43d	1	0.24mi
9 Nolana Dr Commerce, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	2254	$1,650	$0.73	13d	1	0.59mi
2446 Remington Dr Commerce, GA	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,500	$1.03	13d	1	0.83mi
2434 Remington Dr Commerce, GA	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,500	$1.03	13d	1	0.84mi
71 Northwood Dr Commerce, GA	3.0	3.0	1933	$2,400	$1.24	13d	1	0.86mi
1642 S Broad St Commerce, GA	2.0	2.0	1613	$2,200	$1.36	13d	1	1.33mi
100 Heritage Hills Dr Commerce, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,503	$1.38	13d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Under Contract 1267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1267 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained single-story ranch in the heart of Commerce! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths across 1,802 square feet, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value-ideal for first-time home buyers. Step inside to find a warm and inviting layout with plenty of natural light and room to grow. The home has been thoughtfully cared for, with major updates already taken care of for you-including a newer roof and HVAC system, both replaced within the past 3 years-giving you peace of mind from day one. The generous living spaces flow seamlessly, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen and dining areas offer ample room for gatherings, while the bedrooms provide cozy retreats at the end of the day. One of the standout features of this home is the seller's willingness to include all furnishings with the sale-making this a truly move-in-ready opportunity. Whether you're just starting out or looking for a hassle-free transition, this home checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to own this charming, well-kept home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools. Schedule your showing today and see all the potential this home has to offer!

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1267 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained single-story ranch in the heart of Commerce! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths across 1,802 square feet, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value-ideal for first-time home buyers. Step inside to find a warm and inviting layout with plenty of natural light and room to grow. The home has been thoughtfully cared for, with major updates already taken care of for you-including a newer roof and HVAC system, both replaced within the past 3 years-giving you peace of mind from day one. The generous living spaces flow seamlessly, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen and dining areas offer ample room for gatherings, while the bedrooms provide cozy retreats at the end of the day. One of the standout features of this home is the seller's willingness to include all furnishings with the sale-making this a truly move-in-ready opportunity. Whether you're just starting out or looking for a hassle-free transition, this home checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to own this charming, well-kept home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools. Schedule your showing today and see all the potential this home has to offer!

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $325,000 Active
4. 2026-04-03
   listed $325,000 New 1267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1267 chars)

   Welcome home to this beautifully maintained single-story ranch in the heart of Commerce! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full baths across 1,802 square feet, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and value-ideal for first-time home buyers. Step inside to find a warm and inviting layout with plenty of natural light and room to grow. The home has been thoughtfully cared for, with major updates already taken care of for you-including a newer roof and HVAC system, both replaced within the past 3 years-giving you peace of mind from day one. The generous living spaces flow seamlessly, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen and dining areas offer ample room for gatherings, while the bedrooms provide cozy retreats at the end of the day. One of the standout features of this home is the seller's willingness to include all furnishings with the sale-making this a truly move-in-ready opportunity. Whether you're just starting out or looking for a hassle-free transition, this home checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to own this charming, well-kept home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and schools. Schedule your showing today and see all the potential this home has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,990 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,794/yr (+$149/mo · 150.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$1,196
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$10,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce City
• NCES district ID: 1301440
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,945
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3567
• State rank: #19 of 174 in GA

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, GA
• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 12,874
• Household income: $62,168
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 297.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.53%
• Current HPI: 458.5304
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $325,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $325,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,196 · -33.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.