29 Oyster Pond Ln · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$2,495,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 293 Days on market

Built 2002 0.70 ac lot $713/sqft · 25% below area Est $3317k · 25% under $17/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 29 Oyster Pond Lane, a completely renovated home designed for year-round comfort and easy living between East Hampton and Amagansett. Set within the private Hampton Waters neighborhood, with no through traffic, the location offers peace, privacy, and convenience just minutes from East Hampton Village. The home underwent renovations in 2022, 2023 and 2025, ensuring modern updates throughout. Inside, you’ll find three spacious ensuite bedrooms, a comfortable guest bedroom, and a dedicated office/den area. A gas fireplace creates a cozy centerpiece in the living area, while large windows showcase bay views from the second-floor primary suite, creating a serene backdrop throughout the home. Outdoors, a heated pool with a new pool heater provides effortless enjoyment, while the landscaped grounds are maintained by an irrigation system. The fully finished basement offers exceptional additional space, complete with a private sauna, home gym, and recreation room ideal for entertainment and relaxation. Hampton Waters is known for its privacy, and close proximity to bay beaches, local restaurants, and the Round Swamp Farm farmer’s market. With town water, modern amenities, and an unbeatable location, 29 Oyster Pond Lane combines comfort, convenience, and coastal living.

Key facts

• Private sauna
• Landscaped grounds
• Home gym

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED HOME
• HEATED POOL
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• FULLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• PRIVATE SAUNA
• HOME GYM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($40k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.32M (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.20M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,212/mo this rent would consume 214% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.14M; list at $2.50M implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,195,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,316,687
• List price: $2,495,000
• Delta: -24.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84 Oyster Shores Rd	0.26mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,500 (0%)	4mo	$4,800,000	$1,371	76
98 Springy Banks Rd	0.23mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,336 (-5%)	7mo	$3,069,000	$920	67
23 Shorewood Dr	0.59mi	3/3.5 (-1)	4,000 (+14%)	10mo	$1,775,105	$444	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-70,562
• Equity at exit: $372,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $765,811
• Equity at exit: $215,722

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax from tax record: −$866 /mo · $10,397/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,874
• Net cashflow: $3,330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $18,996

Max offer price $2,495,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
643 Stephen Hands Path East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	3200	$65,000	$20.31	43d	1	1.13mi
35 Ely Brook Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	4.5	2914	$45,000	$15.44	24d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 293 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 292 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 291 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 290 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 288 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 287 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $2,495,000 Active 284 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 284 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 279 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 278 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 277 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $2,950,000 1303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1303 chars)

    Welcome to 29 Oyster Pond Lane, a completely renovated home designed for year-round comfort and easy living between East Hampton and Amagansett. Set within the private Hampton Waters neighborhood, with no through traffic, the location offers peace, privacy, and convenience just minutes from East Hampton Village. The home underwent renovations in 2022, 2023 and 2025, ensuring modern updates throughout. Inside, you’ll find three spacious ensuite bedrooms, a comfortable guest bedroom, and a dedicated office/den area. A gas fireplace creates a cozy centerpiece in the living area, while large windows showcase bay views from the second-floor primary suite, creating a serene backdrop throughout the home. Outdoors, a heated pool with a new pool heater provides effortless enjoyment, while the landscaped grounds are maintained by an irrigation system. The fully finished basement offers exceptional additional space, complete with a private sauna, home gym, and recreation room ideal for entertainment and relaxation. Hampton Waters is known for its privacy, and close proximity to bay beaches, local restaurants, and the Round Swamp Farm farmer’s market. With town water, modern amenities, and an unbeatable location, 29 Oyster Pond Lane combines comfort, convenience, and coastal living.

17. 2025-08-29
    listed $2,995,000 Active 1303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1303 chars)

    Welcome to 29 Oyster Pond Lane, a completely renovated home designed for year-round comfort and easy living between East Hampton and Amagansett. Set within the private Hampton Waters neighborhood, with no through traffic, the location offers peace, privacy, and convenience just minutes from East Hampton Village. The home underwent renovations in 2022, 2023 and 2025, ensuring modern updates throughout. Inside, you’ll find three spacious ensuite bedrooms, a comfortable guest bedroom, and a dedicated office/den area. A gas fireplace creates a cozy centerpiece in the living area, while large windows showcase bay views from the second-floor primary suite, creating a serene backdrop throughout the home. Outdoors, a heated pool with a new pool heater provides effortless enjoyment, while the landscaped grounds are maintained by an irrigation system. The fully finished basement offers exceptional additional space, complete with a private sauna, home gym, and recreation room ideal for entertainment and relaxation. Hampton Waters is known for its privacy, and close proximity to bay beaches, local restaurants, and the Round Swamp Farm farmer’s market. With town water, modern amenities, and an unbeatable location, 29 Oyster Pond Lane combines comfort, convenience, and coastal living.

18. 2021-01-13
    soldstatus $1,139,750
19. 2002-06-26
    soldstatus $677,000
20. 2001-06-21
    soldstatus $220,000
21. 1999-09-23
    soldstatus $113,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,397 · $866/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $26,281 · $2,190/mo
• Expected delta: +$15,884/yr (+$1,324/mo · 152.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $278,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$10,397
• − Insurance: −$12,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,283
• − Management: −$22,283
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable loss: −$1,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$347
• After-tax cash flow: $40,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2510.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $2,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Listed $2,995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $1,139,750 Public Records
• 2002-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $677,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,397 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.